How his choice could impact on the Dems’ hopes of taking the Senate
While we have all been focused on the pandemic there’s been some big movement in the Dems VP nomination betting with Kamala Harris sinking sharply and Warren moving up strongly.,
The one certainty is that Biden will choose a woman because he has made that commitment. The top three in the betting – Harris, Klobuchar and Warren – are all senators and would have to replaced if they got elected in November. It is this which could cause a problem.
Cuurently 53 of the 100 Senate seats are held by Republicans. If, say, Harris was on the ticket and won that woudn’t cause a problem in the Democratic party stronghold of California. But what if its Warren who has been rising in the betting? Her successor as one of the Senators for Massachusetts would be chosen by the state governor who is a Republican. So Warren being on the ticket could make the party’s Senate hopes much harder to achieve.
The problem here is that its argued that Warren on the ticket with Biden would make it easier for the Dems to win back the White House. Warren is seen as being best able to pick up the backing of enthusiastic Bernie supporters a signficant slab of whom voted against Hillary at WH2016. Warren also would bring over an accomplished fundraisng operation which is badly needed by the Biden team.
My guess is that Biden will go with whoever he thinks will make his White House dream a reality.