Super Tuesday: The early results looking good for Biden who moves to a 70% chance on Betfair
But no results yet from Texas and California
Super Tuesday: With just over four hours to go before the counts begin Biden opens big gap in the betting
To give an idea of the sheer scale of tonight’s primary elections a total of 1,344 will be decided compared with the 1,991 pledged delegates that will be required to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. This is probably the biggest single day of primaries ever and turnout is expected to be high across the 14 states involved. The polls close in Vermont, Virginia and in Alabama at midnight UK time and we should start getting local results…
Warren looks a promising bet in Massachusetts following the Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawals
At 5/2 she’s value A big problem with just about all the Super Tuesday polls is that they were carried out before Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar announced that they were pulling out so it is hard to assess where their support will go. As the polling of Massachusetts above shows Elizabeth Warren had been running Bernie Sanders fairly close in what is her home state and where she has one of the two senate seats. A big question is…
With both Bernie and Biden close to their 80s their VP choices could be crucial
We all know that the joint front runners now in the race for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are both older than anybody who has ever run for the White House before and there must be a high actuarial chance, at least, if it is one of these who is the nominee won’t make it until the election on the first Tuesday in November. The corona virus is also making us aware of the vulnerability of the…
After Klobuchar joins Buttigieg in pulling out we’ve almost got crossover on Betfair’s Dem nomination market
Biden and Bernie running neck and neck on the eve of “Super Tuesday”
Away from the virus and WH2020 – a Twitter thread with several PBers on the LAB leadership
Buttigieg quitting the WH2020 race triggers Biden bounce in the Dem nomination betting
The three late septuagenarians lead the race The big development in the race for the White House overnight has been the decision by Pete Buttigieg to quit the race following his poor performance in South Carolina. This comes just 36 hours after it was confirmed that he did in fact win the Iowa caucuses which of course was the first State to decide. I just wonder if the outcome in Iowa had been clear-cut and and Pete seen as the…
Priti Vacant? Who will be next out of the cabinet
This market from Ladbrokes is an interesting one. Priti Patel who previously was a ‘winner’ in this market when in 2017 she had to resign in disgrace when she deludedly thought she was Foreign Secretary is the favourite in this market, at 1/1 evens I’m not remotely interested at those odds. For me the interesting one is the DEFRA Secretary George Eustice at 12/1 who has had a sub-optimal few days as the following thread by Jim Pickard shows, and…