Latest UK and US polling not good for Johnson’s government and Trump
For the first time since lockdown Johnson’s government gets negative YouGov approval rating And in the White House race Trump is struggling against Biden
Klobuchar sees big move to her in the WH2020 Dem VP betting
By far the most active political betting market at the moment is on who will be the Democratic nomination for VP – a job, given Biden’s age, could be a huge stepping stone to becoming President. This was all triggered by this report from CBS News Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) “has been asked by Joe Biden to undergo a formal vetting to be considered as his vice presidential running mate, one of several potential contenders now being scrutinized by his…
Welcome to tonight’s PB NightHawks
The big betting move in the last few hours has been on Amy Klobuchar who is to be vetted by the Biden campaign as a possible VP. I’m not sure how significant this is because there have been reports of other potential VP choices also being examined. Certainly Klobuchar has a lot going to her.
A Johnson U-turn on the NHS surcharge for overseas NHS workers would be a big win for Starmer
Starmer has indicated that he’ll table an amendment to the Immigration bill which would force a a Commons vote on the issue. In the post linked to by Katy Balls in her Tweet she noted: “Behind the scenes, the number of would-be rebels is growing – they are not the usual suspects. ‘There’s a big sense of momentum,’ says one MP who is considering their position. ‘The government need to move pretty quickly’. Among those expressing concerns are several of the new intake…
Betfair punters have got the LD leadership race about right – Moran has a good chance of beating Davey
We’ve now got the timetable for the LD leadership race and the successor to Jo Swinson will be announced at the end of August. It looks as though the race will be between Layla Moran and Ed Davey with Daisy Cooper as possibly another candidate. The elections was due to have been underway now but has been deferred because of the pandemic. In the aftermath of Jo Swinson unexpectedly losing her seat to the SNP in the general election the…
WH2020: Punters still not fully convinced that it’ll be Trump v Biden
Either can be had at longer than evens The chart shows the latest betting on who will be the next President in Betfair’s now £30m market. The amount that’s been gambled so far is by far a record this far out but the interesting thing is that the uncertainty that still remains over who is going to be heading the ticket for either side. By contrast the other big market on WH2020 outcome on which will be the winning party…
Starmer’s ratings are generally getting better as the number of don’t knows declines
We are now in the 7th week of Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party and he could take some comfort about the general direction of his leader ratings which historically have been a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention polling. When Starmer first got the job on April 4th he was relatively unknown and that was reflected in the smallish proportion of those polled who had an opinion. Thus in his first week just 42% of those…
Does this Indy writer have a point – is Boris now really that vulnerable and will be out by Christmas?
The above article has been posted this afternoon on The Independent website and puts forward what Sir Humphrey would describe as a ” very courageous” prediction. Sure Boris has not had the best of times leading a government facing the pandemic and sure the UK’s comparative record has not been that great. O’Grady notes in his piece:- “Every bumbling performance at prime minister’s questions, each stumbling appearance at a coronavirus media conference, each bit of misguided spin that emanates from Downing Street,…