Are we heading for an SNP leadership contest? With rumours swelling that Scotland’s First Minister is to resign, the bookies make Sturgeon 11/10 to have left her post before the end of 2020, however it is odds-on at 4/6 she is still in charge. Sturgeon’s problem is that her party is very much divided and next year Scotland goes to the polls to elect a new Scottish Parliament when issues such as how the SNP has run the country for…
The latest betting on Betfair has Trump as a 59% chance of being re-elected in November. This reflects a widespread view that Sanders is going to win the nomination but that when it comes to the election itself he’ll prove to be unelectable. Maybe that’s why the overall outcome betting has now moved towards Trump and certainly I have my doubts about the Dems choosing a candidate who would be 80 a few months after becoming president if elected. But…
Ladbrokes have this market on the correct finishing order in the Labour leadership market after the final round. The tweets by Matt Singh indicate that Rebecca Long Bailey is going to finish last but I’m always dubious when people talk about private polls and do not publish the polling tables. At 2/1, Starmer first, Nandy second, and Long Bailey third, it’s not exactly stellar odds when you remember the last public poll had Long Bailey in second place 25% ahead…
The British monarchy has its origins so far back in time, it’s easy to forget just how old it is. Its roots – in both Anglo-Saxon England and the ancient Kingdom of Alba – stretch back well over 1,000 years and it’s now comfortably into its third millennium. So, you could be forgiven for thinking it’s as stable and enduring as the rocks that form these islands themselves. You’d be wrong. The monarchy – as an institution – is far…
The only way he can be fail, surely, is if there’s an agreement on a single centrist contender This post from @Nigelb sums it up: Both billionaire egotists have declared there sticking around for Super Tuesday, so I think that’s it. Biden is weak enough that it would be a poor gamble for (say) Buttigieg to drop out and endorse him… and Warren on 9% just thanked Nevada for “keeping her in the race”…This race is analogous to the last…
It’s another big night in the fight for he WH2010 Democratic nomination with the caucuses in Nevada. We should start getting results at about 0300 GMT. Bernie goes into this latest with a very clear lead in the caucus polling. The latest RCP polling average is: Sanders 32.5% Buttigieg 16% Biden 16% Warren 14% Klobuchar 9.5% If the Sanders numbers are in line with the polling then I agree with David Herdson view in the previous thread. Mike Smithson
Only a health scare is likely to stop him now Inevitably, all eyes on the race for the Democrat nomination are trained today on Nevada, which today becomes the third state to vote in the contest. Except it doesn’t. There’s still far too much attention paid in the media to ‘election day’ itself, which is now a highly misleading concept. Early voting has transformed how elections are conducted by both the public and political parties / candidates, (both here and…
Tomorrow sees Nevada the second state in the WH2020 process to hold a caucus to choose a nominee to fight Mr. Trump. The big difference between caucuses and a normal primary is that with the former the party machine, not the state government handles the elections which can be more complex than simple statewide ballots. Democratic Party officials in Nevada are determined that there should be no repetition of the Iowa mess-up where we still don’t know for sure whether…