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Trump is said to be obsessed with the polls and the news for him has been getting worse

11/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With Trump’s poll ratings having taken a nasty shock the President has decided to hold his first big rally in month in Tulsa, Oklahoma next week. The venue looks odd given that the state is one of the most rock solid Republican you can find and it is hard to see any political gain in going there. Perhaps that is the point. He wants to go to an area where he knows he will be given an overwhelmingly friendly welcome…

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Twenty thousand excess pandemic deaths could be Johnson’s political legacy

11/6/2020 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

How’s this going to play at the general election? Whenever the pandemic is over and we return to normal life the politics of what has happened over these last few months are going to dominate the political agenda perhaps until the next general election. A big question is whether Johnson’s government was too slow to act. The main story on Guardian this morning under the headline “Enforcing UK lockdown one week earlier ‘could have saved 20,000 lives’ sets out an…

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More dreadful leader numbers for Boris: Starmer moves to a net plus 34 in latest YouGov Well/Badly ratings

10/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Another set of leader ratings has Johnson trailing a long way behind Starmer. The LAB leader has a net score (badly % deducted from Well %) of plus 27%. In the same poll with the same calculation Johnson is minus 7%. So that means a 34% net lead for Starmer. This is in line with other leader recent leader rating polling which asked different questions. The YouGov one here was its traditional “is X doing well/badly?” At the moment the…

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A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed

10/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This looks quite interesting – trying to assess how the main two parties are viewed by looking at responses to the same series of YouGov questions over a period of time. This has been all dressed up and called the Valence Index. No doubt we’ll see more of this in the coming months but it will be a long time before we can test this in a real election. One thing that strikes me is that there are more don’t…

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Weeping angels. On moving statues

10/6/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

“I met a traveller from an antique landWho said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stoneStand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,Tell that its sculptor well those passions readWhich yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:And on the pedestal these words appear:‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’Nothing…

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YouGov: If there’s a second wave then CON voters most likely to blame the public and LAB ones the government

9/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

GE2019 Tory remainers – the key voting group who are giving Starmer positive ratings

9/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

We are just over 3 years and 10 months from May 2nd 2024 which is the final date that the next general election can be held. That’s the time that the new Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has got in order to put himself into position where LAB can take enough seats to make the party electorally competitive. LAB’s seat total from GE2019 was 202 – the lowest total that the party has achieved since 1935. To get a majority Labour…

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The Social Undistanceables: A Plan

9/6/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Thinking through the problem of the moment What a mouthful. Like the name for a reality TV programme. Trying to match up the odd, the awkward, the peculiar. Or perhaps a play – if a theatre can be found. Almost unremarked, the RSC recently announced it would close until next January. Birmingham Hippodrome has started redundancy consultations, its reason being what Basil Fawlty might have termed the “bleedin’ obvious”: “We are unable to reopen until social distancing measures are relaxed”….

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