With Trump’s poll ratings having taken a nasty shock the President has decided to hold his first big rally in month in Tulsa, Oklahoma next week. The venue looks odd given that the state is one of the most rock solid Republican you can find and it is hard to see any political gain in going there. Perhaps that is the point. He wants to go to an area where he knows he will be given an overwhelmingly friendly welcome and maybe that will boost his morale.
The Republican pollster well known in the UK for his appearances on Newsnight, Frank Luntz, has questioned the Trump strategy of making law an order such an issue. Strident rhetoric on might not be appropriate at the moment, Luntz told the Washington Post:
“He’s isolated linguistically. He’s talking about ‘law and order.’The last time I heard that was the 1968 campaign. His rhetoric is 50 years old. The world has changed. … He’s got 40 percent of the country completely enthralled with him.” But, he added, “This is not a lexicon that gets you elected. This is a lexicon that gets you to 45 percent and not more.”
The article also noted that “Trump has become obsessed with polling and lashes out at those who say he is losing to Biden, according to two White House officials and a longtime Trump ally.”
The real challenge for the White House is reaching those independents who went with Trump in 2016 against Hillary. The detail of the polling shows that he’s struggling with key segments like college educated white women who are now giving the edge to Biden.
There is a long way to go and plenty can happen in the weeks and months before November 2nd – but there’s no doubt that at the moment the President looks in trouble.
My money remains on Biden.