The Lincoln Project’s response to Trump’s pardon of convicted felon Roger Stone

The Lincoln Project’s response to Trump’s pardon of convicted felon Roger Stone

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There’s little doubt that Trump’s pardon of advisor, Roger Stone, only days before he was due to start a prison sentence is a huge moment in this election campaign. He’s not the first President to issue controversial pardons and many remember the final days of Bill Clinton’s terms. But this one really stands out and looks set to play a big part in the coming weeks in the efforts of those who want to stop him being re-elected. The Lincoln…

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The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

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Good news for the red team as their leader completes his first three months? The above chart from Opinium sets out the responses to a wide range of match-ups between Starmer and Johnson and as can be seen these sre not good for the current incumbent at Number 10. One of the reasons as you look through the detail is that voters of just about all persuasions including Tories are reluctant to give the new LAB leader and former DPP…

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Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

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Looking at the changes in the US electorate There is no doubt that President Trump is keen to make the Presidential election a referendum on ‘woke’, on the topping of statues, and on the Democratic party being in hock to a far left faction. And recent did gift him some prize examples, the “awkward squad” of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan were all elected to the House…

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Can Johnson raise the Tories’ game above Easy mode? Can Labour force him to?

Can Johnson raise the Tories’ game above Easy mode? Can Labour force him to?

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Governments with no effective opposition become arrogant and complacent Why did the Lib Dems choose the Tories over Labour after the inconclusive 2010 general election? Although only a decade ago, it could as well have been a lifetime given how much has changed since – and in the last five years in particular. But that change makes the question all the more pertinent. The numbers were a big part of it, of course. The Tories could promise a stable government…

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New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

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The biggest lead in any poll since May The changes of course are within the margin of error and YouGov has been tending to show the Tories doing better than some other pollsters. Last weekend Opinium, the pollster which got the last general election most right, had the gap at just 4%. This may be just a positive effect of the pandemic apparently getting slightly better in the UK and of course the easing in the lockdown rules. Things start…

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Is Johnson really going to stick it out as PM till the next general election?

Is Johnson really going to stick it out as PM till the next general election?

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Ladbrokes make it 3/2 that he’ll be gone by then In his column in the Times this morning about the rise of Rishi Sunak Times writer Iain Martin makes the following astute observation about Boris’s career plans: At the heart of whispered Conservative calculations is the great unspoken truth of Tory affairs right now: it will be surprising if Mr Johnson fights the next election. The prime minister does not look like a man up for another five to ten…

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With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite

With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite

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The latest chart of the Betdata.io LD leadership market shows that Davey is now the clear favourite on 57% with Moran trailing on 41%. We are shortly to go into the next phases in the race with online hustings taking place before the ballot packs go out. The result won’t be known until the last week in August. In non-lockdown LD elections the hustings have played a big part and my guess is that the online sessions should attract good…

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New YouGov polling finds Brits more ready consider traveling overseas than foreigners ready to come to the UK

New YouGov polling finds Brits more ready consider traveling overseas than foreigners ready to come to the UK

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Given the current Covid19 figures for the UK then it is hardly surprising that Brits are more inclined to consider travelling to other countries than those who live there want to come here. The biggest gap is with France which in normal times is the UK favourite travel destination. As can be seen 21% of Brits would consider going to France compared with just 5% of French people ready to consider coming in the other direction. Essentially the pandemic league…

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