First post convention polling has Biden retaining his clear lead but no signs of a bounce

First post convention polling has Biden retaining his clear lead but no signs of a bounce

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Generally speaking in previous White House races the big party conventions have been the trigger for significant moves in the polling. This year because of the pandemic the conventions are virtual and all eyes are on the the first full surveys to come out following the Democratic party event which finished on Thursday night. So far there is only one new poll carried out totally after the convention and that has Biden with a 9% lead rather than an 8%…

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No 10 is once again going to have to choose between No Deal and a Bad Deal

No 10 is once again going to have to choose between No Deal and a Bad Deal

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Brexit has not gone away; far from it Gavin Williamson is a lucky man. In any ordinary government he would have been sacked over the exams fiasco this month, ex-Chief Whip’s book or not. This, however, is not a normal government. It’s not normal in part because it simply doesn’t play by the conventions of the game and is happy to brazen out scandals or tolerate failure that generally wouldn’t have been accepted in the past. It also has the…

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In the WH2020 betting the Trump price continues to recover

In the WH2020 betting the Trump price continues to recover

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On Betfair the total matched now exceeds £60m This week has, of course, been the Democratic convention which because of the pandemic has been a virtual one. This has meant none of the last spectacle that we normally associate with US conventions but the party has used the prime time TV coverage that it has got to send out specific messages and promote specific people. Last night Joe Biden was up with his acceptance speech and the general view of…

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A 14% return in a little over 65 hours?

A 14% return in a little over 65 hours?

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Paddy Power have a market up on whether Gavin Williamson will be out of the cabinet by the end of Sunday, now we should praise Paddy Power for putting up both sides of the markets. I’m advising taking the 1/7 because the bar for being sacked from Boris Johnson has been raised to the point where I suspect only denouncing Brexit or saying Dominic Cummings broke lockdown & quarantine rules on his excursion to Durham will get you sacked. I…

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Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

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If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it isn’t looking good, the tweets above indicate the worrying issues facing the Union right now. There’s some scope for hope, from this observer’s view it appears that debate is being framed as Scotland v. The Tories/Boris Johnson, with Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems absent from the debate. Once those parties join the debate we might see the arguments change. However relying on a party led by Richard Leonard to be the Gebhard…

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CON lead down to 2% while Starmer is now 4% ahead of Johnson as “Best PM” in latest YouGov

CON lead down to 2% while Starmer is now 4% ahead of Johnson as “Best PM” in latest YouGov

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Counting the cost of the A-level debacle The latest YouGov Times poll just published has the Tories in their worst position in any survey since GE2019 with Starmer now beating Johnson as “Best PM” by 35% to 31%. All this comes of course after the dreadful week that the Government has been having over the exam grades when the EdSec had to abandon his initial plan and leave everything to be based on teacher projections. The best PM figures in…

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