politicalbetting.com – Page 529 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

10/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A former PB regular has been in touch with me to say that we’ve got it all wrong over the betting on the American election. He argues that Trump is in a much better position than several of the recent posts on the site have suggested and there are reasons to believe that the US polling is is not correct. Now he may be right and come early November those who have backed Trump will be delighted at the prospect…

Read More Read More

New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled think the Covid 19 crisis is getting worse

9/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There’s been a huge jump since the end of August I find the above chart absolutely fascinating because it shows very dramatically the changes in the public’s perception of how the pandemic is going. We are not back to the May to July period but there has been a lot of movement in in the past few days. A 32% to 54% jump is massive. May be the reality of what the pandemic has done and fears of the immediate…

Read More Read More

Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates

9/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Given their importance this sounds like a risky strategy The next big event in the White House race is the the first TV debate between Trump and Biden – something that at previous elections contenders have put a lot of effort preparing for trying to anticipate how the event will go and have ready some biting attack lines. So it is rather surprising that the incumbent, Mr. Trump, has decided to spurn the normal preparation. According to NBC News: The…

Read More Read More

That was then. This is now.

9/9/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Cyclefree on attitudes to obeying the law “Britain does not break treaties. It would be bad for Britain, bad for our relations with the rest of the world and bad for any future treaty on trade we may wish to make.” – Margaret Thatcher , Leader of the Opposition, April 1975 “The first duty of government is to uphold the law. If it tries to bob and weave and duck around that duty when it’s inconvenient, if government does that,…

Read More Read More

Why the Johnson/Cummings “ignore the treaty” move sets bad precedents

8/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

My son, Robert, posted this comment on the last thread which nearly sums up the dangers and I think deserves greater prominence. He wrote: “1.It’s bad for Northern IrelandBoris Johnson can’t walk back on his plans to abrogate now, without causing an enormous problem with the Unionist community in Northern Ireland. It’s creating another “stabbed in the back” myth. On the other hand, if you do abrogate, and we walk away from the Withdrawal Agreement, then it will create equally…

Read More Read More

Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

8/9/2020 Richard Nabavi Comments 0 Comment

A number of groups publish statistical models, usually updated daily, which attempt to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes of the US presidential election. The best-known is Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. Others include models from The Economist, Decision Desk HQ, and the New Statesman. These models all work in a similar way. They start by trying to get a best estimate of the current opinion poll averages, both at national and state level, correcting as best they can for the perceived…

Read More Read More

Fisking the PM – examining the background to his controversial EU move

7/9/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

There used to be (may well still be) an enjoyable pastime for readers of Robert Fisk’s articles: a point by point rebuttal of the factual errors and other idiocies contained in them. Other journalists can be fisked with equal pleasure. At one point there was a veritable cottage industry dependant on Polly Toynbee’s output. So on a rainy day starting a new week of political fun and games, it is time to revive this practice and apply it to another…

Read More Read More

Biden moving back up on the Betfair WH2020 “next president” market

7/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The early absentee ballot data looks positive for the challenger The recent spate of good national and state polls for Joe Biden has led to something of a turnaround in the betting. After a long period when the Trump position got a better and better things seemed to have changed with punters now more ready to risk their cash on a Biden victory. In some states the absentee ballot process has begun and what we are seeing is many more…

Read More Read More