Enemies within?

Enemies within?

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Not so long ago we had Islamists spouting vile rhetoric inspiring the young to slaughter innocents. The Choudhury’s and Abu Qatada’s of this world were quick to say they weren’t responsible. They carefully positioned themselves – just – on the right side of the line dividing hateful words and incitement to violence. Those doing the attacks came to their own views and, anyway, were only reacting to the bad stuff they had seen done to their “brothers”. Decent people (including politicians) were…

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A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong.

A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong.

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2019 was an absolute batshit crazy year wasn’t it? But then 2020 said hold my beer on the bat shit crazy front. Three of the top five in the Ladbrokes market on next PM a year ago were no longer MPs a little over two months later, betting markets can get it spectacularly wrong at times. TSE

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

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Looking at those key states, worth 55 electoral college votes that Trump won in 2016 it is understandable why people are talking now about a Biden victory but the size of it, but from those same polls there’s a sliver of optimism for Trump because the same polls that gives Biden hefty leads they also show this Now we’ve seen plenty of occasions across the world when the party leading the voting intention loses the election because they’ve trailed on…

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2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

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It might seem odd that even before the 2020 election day that people would be betting on the 2024 race but it does give a chance to spot some value. Ladbrokes have a market up on who will win the 2024 Presidential election and on the Dem saide I’m quite taken with the 66/1 on Pete Buttigieg and 50/1 on Tom Cotton on the GOP side. If Biden loses next month his age alone must surely rule him out for…

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Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

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In the film “Mrs Brown” there is a scene in Parliament where MPs are passing around a Tomahawk cartoon showing an empty throne captioned “Where is Britannia?” It’s a reference to widowed Queen Victoria’s long self-imposed isolation and its effect on good governance and support for the monarchy. A similar criticism could be made now – not of her great-great-grand-daughter – but of Parliament. During the biggest combined health and economic crisis of recent times, where is Parliament? Some Tory…

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Trump’s money troubles: cutting advertising spend in key states points to problems

Trump’s money troubles: cutting advertising spend in key states points to problems

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Biden is out-spending him and Trump can’t find a killer line Donald Trump is famously so poor that he only paid $750 in federal income tax in 2016. His campaigning in 2016 was similarly economical. In that election, Trump raised and spent only just over half the total of his opponent: Hillary winning the funding battle by $1191m to $647m. In the end, of course, that didn’t matter; Trump won the election. He did so partly because Hillary was just…

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If Texas goes blue on election night Trump is finished

If Texas goes blue on election night Trump is finished

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One of the few states with a clear decision on the night? By far the biggest and most intensive state election battle is going on in Texas where polls currently have Trump leading by just over 1%. What makes the state so important, apart from its 38 ECVs, is that that there is very little postal voting and it should be one of the few states to complete its count overnight on November 3rd. If Trump loses, currently a 29%…

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Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline

Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline

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After the VP debate Trump used the word “monster” to describe Kamala Harris. A Trump campaign adviser Harlan Hill tweeted during event that Harris was an “insufferable lying bitch,” . This was even too much for Fox news which has banned him from appearing. All this, I’d argue, will help reinforce the big electoral dynamic of this campaign – seen in the Morning Consult polling in the Tweet above – the struggle the President has with women voters. Just about all…

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