If Texas goes blue on election night Trump is finished
One of the few states with a clear decision on the night?
By far the biggest and most intensive state election battle is going on in Texas where polls currently have Trump leading by just over 1%.
What makes the state so important, apart from its 38 ECVs, is that that there is very little postal voting and it should be one of the few states to complete its count overnight on November 3rd. If Trump loses, currently a 29% chance on Betfair, then at one stroke it wouldundermine his threatened plan to declare him the winner nationally based on voting on the day.
Because of this the Biden campaign is throwing everything at trying to flip the state. Earlier in the week there was a massive phone canvas, led by Oprah Winfrey and Bernie Sanders where the objective was to contact one million Texas voters in a single evening.
A Texas win for the Democrats has probably been made more challenging by the efforts of the Republican Governor to make voting harder by cutting back on the number of places where you can vote early. There are also very strict voter ID rules.
In terms of voter turnout Texas has a reputation of having very low numbers and this affects both Republicans and Democrats.
The latest polling average has Trump 1.7% ahead.