And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal

And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal

Comments 0 Comment

“Circuit breaker”, “Lockdown 2”, “Tier 3 restrictions” – there’s no end to the descriptions being given to the steps being proposed by politicians in all 4 corners of the kingdom to the steps they want taken to stop the virus spreading further. So, presumably, they have clear answers to the following questions:- How Long For? The last lockdown was initially stated to be for 3 weeks. It ended up nearer 4 months and has yet to be lifted for some…

Read More Read More

New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

Comments 0 Comment

Probably the most dramatic and politically significant UK poll for months is the above latest survey by Ipsos MORI on backing for Scottish Independence which, of course, was rejected by voters north of the border in the 2014 referendum. Key points from the poll: Among those who would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 58% say they would vote Yes while 42% would vote No. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings are extremely positive. 72% of the Scottish public say…

Read More Read More

The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

Comments 0 Comment

It is that gap with women that’s so tough for the incumbent One of the great things that happened in the early days of PB (before GE2005) was the creation of the British Polling Council which placed requirements on pollsters to make available certain key data within a fixed time period after the publication of a poll. This is voluntary but political pollsters know that they will struggle to make an impact unless they are BPC compliant. We now take…

Read More Read More

The other big US election three weeks today – the fight to control the Senate

The other big US election three weeks today – the fight to control the Senate

Comments 0 Comment

If you are betting remember to check the bookies’ rules The above Economist video gives a good analysis for those punters who plan to have a bet on on the race to control the US senate – which is being voted on at the same time as the President three weeks today. This is almost as critical as the Presidency because the Republicans have been blocking so much of what has been agreed by the House. At the moment the…

Read More Read More

This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

Comments 0 Comment

Daily Express readers give their backing to the racist pussy grabberhttps://t.co/G0SLKkOpwJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2020 Like many PBers I am following WH2020 polling very closely at the moment given millions of Americans have already voted and the election itself is three weeks today. As a result the above story from the “newspaper” the Daily Express popped up my inbox. It says that “a new UK survey has put the President way out in front in the race…

Read More Read More

The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

Comments 0 Comment

With the election just three weeks away way I thought it might be useful to have the above chart so we can monitor the latest polls in the states that will decide the election. The chart shows simply the average Biden polling lead as recorded in Fivethirtyeight.com. These are the states where almost all of the effort is being put in and where, of course, there are the most active betting markets. The number of state polls is unprecedented and…

Read More Read More

For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved

For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved

Comments 0 Comment

But some movement on the exchanges Over the past week the message from both the national and the state level polls is that Joe Biden is doing very well indeed and if they’re right he will be the next President of the United States. Yet there still appears to be a lot of nervousness amongst punters on both the spread betting markets and exchanges suggest. The Sporting Index spread on Biden of 315-321 has barely moved and the exchanges are…

Read More Read More