But some movement on the exchanges
Over the past week the message from both the national and the state level polls is that Joe Biden is doing very well indeed and if they’re right he will be the next President of the United States. Yet there still appears to be a lot of nervousness amongst punters on both the spread betting markets and exchanges suggest.
The Sporting Index spread on Biden of 315-321 has barely moved and the exchanges are not reflecting what the polls appear to be suggesting.
My view is that many are spooked by Donald Trump which is a hangover from 4 years ago when his victory was really not predicted. There’s just a feeling that he could pull something out of the bag which might enable him to hang onto power.
Trump has talked several times about polling day itself and having a team of 50,000 volunteers who will monitor polling stations which sounds a bit sinister. But I am far from convinced about the 50k number. Remember what happened a few months ago ahead of Trump’s much publicised Tulsa rally when huge claims were made about the number of people who were attending. In the end the the arena was half full.
One factor that makes the election totally different from earlier ones is the huge level of early voting. Latest figures have 9.3m having already cast their ballots. This compares with 1.4 million at the stage in 2016.
Trump’s legal efforts to try to stymie early voting have so far not succeeded and moves by one of two state governors to limit the availability of this voting method have found that their decisions have been overturned by the courts.
I’ve cashed out at a nice profit from my Biden spread betting position to free up resources for state betting.