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Trump’s money troubles: cutting advertising spend in key states points to problems

10/10/2020 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Biden is out-spending him and Trump can’t find a killer line Donald Trump is famously so poor that he only paid $750 in federal income tax in 2016. His campaigning in 2016 was similarly economical. In that election, Trump raised and spent only just over half the total of his opponent: Hillary winning the funding battle by $1191m to $647m. In the end, of course, that didn’t matter; Trump won the election. He did so partly because Hillary was just…

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If Texas goes blue on election night Trump is finished

9/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the few states with a clear decision on the night? By far the biggest and most intensive state election battle is going on in Texas where polls currently have Trump leading by just over 1%. What makes the state so important, apart from its 38 ECVs, is that that there is very little postal voting and it should be one of the few states to complete its count overnight on November 3rd. If Trump loses, currently a 29%…

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Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline

9/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After the VP debate Trump used the word “monster” to describe Kamala Harris. A Trump campaign adviser Harlan Hill tweeted during event that Harris was an “insufferable lying bitch,” . This was even too much for Fox news which has banned him from appearing. All this, I’d argue, will help reinforce the big electoral dynamic of this campaign – seen in the Morning Consult polling in the Tweet above – the struggle the President has with women voters. Just about all…

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Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. US election special. Can Trump turn it around?

8/10/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Chris Jackson from Ipsos in the US and Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to take a deep-dive look at the upcoming US presidential election. Listen to the episode here: Topics discussed included: What’s driving Biden’s lead? How can Trump turn it around? Shy Trump voters / partisan non-response bias / turnout filters and other important polling points The states to watch Will we know the result on election day? Is…

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Biden backers unruffled by the overnight VP debate

8/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Just three weeks and five days to go and overnight we have had the Vice Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Mike pence. I didn’t stay up to watch it but by all reports the biggest moment came when a fly landed on Pence’s head and seem to stay there for minutes. From the clips I’ve seen it looked a pretty even discussion and it is hard to see how this is going to change the trajectory of the race….

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Tonight’s big event in the White House race – The VP debate

7/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After an extraordinary good run of polls for Biden tonight sees the VP TV debate with Pence facing Kamala Harris. Given what’s happened with COVID over the past few days than I’d expect Harris to press Pence hard and to get him to disagree with Trump. She’s ample material to play with. Generally this debate does not get anything like the attention of the main debates but because of the ages of those at the top of the ticket there…

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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

7/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In terms of the national polls Trump has taken a big hit over the past few days in the aftermath of his much criticised debate performance and his reaction to catching COVID-19. There’s a lot of discussion going on about comparing current polling with what happened at WH2020 when Trump was firs elected. I’d argue that a better comparison is the polling for the 2018 midterms – Trump’s first electoral test. The main thing that characterises that election was the…

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LET’S TALK LANDSLIDES

6/10/2020 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Everything points to Biden winning big. Believe it. Why do we not believe the evidence in front of us? Sometimes it’s because we don’t want to accept the bad news it reveals; sometimes it’s because we daren’t believe the good news for fear of jinxing it; it may be that we had our fingers burnt by believing something similar in the past which then turned out differently; or maybe the outcome is so far from our experiences that it feels…

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