What makes the Texas battle intriguing is the historic polling understatement of the Democrats in the state

What makes the Texas battle intriguing is the historic polling understatement of the Democrats in the state

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Biden winning here the best value bet of WH2020? At WH2016 the Texas final polls had Trump beating Clinton by 11.7% compared with a 9% margin on the day. Two years later, at the 2018 midterms, the RCP polling average had Republican Senator Ted Cruz beating Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 6.8%. In the end Cruz just managed it with a margin of 2.6%. Currently the FiveThirtyEight average has Trump ahead of Biden in the state by just 1.2%. It is…

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The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy

The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy

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The above Tweet sets out clearly and succinctly how the Johnson/Cummings team is seeking to undermine many bodies and to bring power presumably, to Dom itself. This is the man, of course, who at the height of the pandemic in April decided that the rules didn’t apply to him and when all was revealed Johnson failed to do anything about it. Clearly with an 80+ majority the government is in a strong position but I just wonder how Tory back…

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Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings

Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings

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So far during this campaign PB has spent a lot of time looking at the voting intention polls but this is the first header on what is arguably a better indicator, the leader ratings for Trump and Biden. The RCP chart shows the gap between the net ratings that Biden is enjoying on favourability compared with those that that Trump is getting. The latest average has Trump on 54.4% unfavourable and 43.1% favourable. This compares with Biden who is getting…

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Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history.

Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history.

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Last Wednesday, I was lucky enough to join Iain Martin of Reaction’s hour-long video chat with historian and Stanford university fellow Niall Ferguson. As ever with Ferguson it was an erudite and illuminating session, ranging across the presidential election, Trump’s four years, the Covid response, Scottish politics and China.  One of his many riffs though struck me hard: is this presidential election about to be 1948 again? Trump is done according to everyone who is anyone in America, reported the…

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What is Sunak up to?

What is Sunak up to?

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Sunak is seen as a possible successor should Boris decide to spend more time painting buses (assuming he’s not pushed under one first). Little wonder: a fresh face, unflustered, articulate and brilliant at PR, with a friendly nickname already (“Mr Yorkshire Tea”). Importantly, he has been in charge of the one government department which has behaved competently during the Covid crisis. The original plan may not have been adequate but Sunak was able to respond to concerns quickly, alter course…

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Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads

Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads

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If you have been following WH2020 polling you’ll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level. But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing. Quite what is driving this is hard to say but I think Paul Krishnamurty’s explanation in…

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The Battle of Trafalgar

The Battle of Trafalgar

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That sleepy #englishbulldog pictured in the previous retweet, is none other than the Trafalgar Group’s mascot “Horatio” Named of course after the Hero of the battle of Trafalgar, Lord Admiral Horatio Nelson. Since we are a polling firm, he goes by “Ratio”. pic.twitter.com/Kj5PhmqheH — The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) August 8, 2020 I spent 30 minutes on the phone this morning with Robert Cahaly, the Head of The Trafalgar Group which PBers will recall as the pollster who called Michigan, Pennyslvania…

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