My tip for the US election 2024: Pete Buttigieg at 50/1
It’s never too early to look forward 2020 is all over bar the shouting, though there’ll be plenty of that yet. The next two and a half months may not be pretty but their essential course is set: Joe Biden will become president of the United States on 20 January next year. He may not quite be assured of victory in any of the outstanding states but he’s favourite – very strong favourite in some – to take Arizona, Nevada,…
The Pennsylvania count looks set to go onto into next week but punters are convinced Biden’s won
Chart – Betdata.io It is perhaps worth restating that the reason why the Pennsylvania count is going on for so long is that there was a deliberate decision of the Republican controlled state authority to operate it that way. With so many voters choosing to cast their ballots by post the majority of states arranged postal ballots be processed as they came in in the weeks before the election. Not so in Pennsylvania where the state decided that nothing should…
As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House
It is morning now on the east coast of the US and the counting continues. In Georgia Biden is now ahead while in Pennsylvania the gap has sharply narrowed. This is in contrast to Arizona where Biden’s lead has been narrowing. Essentially Pennsylvania will be the key and it is important to note that the narrative would have been entirely different in the state if early votes had been counted first. Instead the Republican controlled state body forbid any effort…
Where the race stands (0510 GMT)
The betting moves further and further away from Trump
The chart above from Betfair’s main rival, Smarkets. neatly maps what’s been happening although as of the time of writing there’s been no new state going Biden’s way. This could go into the weekend.
The WH2020 count goes on with still no sign of a resolution
Could we know by the end of the day? The screen grab above is from Georgia – one of they states where there’s just a possibility of a Biden victory which, if it happens, could lead to the media at least calling the overall result of the election. On the Betfair exchange betting continues at a fair pace and so far the total matched bets is just short of £500m – half a BILLION pounds. On top of that are…
WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory
Based on what we have at the moment it looks more likely that Biden will be the next president than Trump. The balance of remaining votes in most of the key states are probably more likely to go to the challenger than the incumbent and the UK betting markets continue to rate Biden as the strong odds on favourite. He’s currently an 83% chance. Whether this will be resolved by the weekend we don’t know.