Boris Johnson is losing the support of his party. There are enough straws in the wind now to indicate his perceived usefulness is coming to an end, and his popularity is rapidly diminishing in the country. If there’s anything more likely to confirm MPs worries it’s the polling, and the most recent show him behind Keir Starmer as best Prime Minister and his support fracturing in the Red Wall. Many have had concerns about Boris all along, and many more…
Chart of Betfair market from Betdata.io – 7.50pm BST The Betfair definition of this market is “Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?” All we have had is media organisations calling it for Biden and it could be a few days before the counting is finalised. So I suppose there is a theoretical possibility that Biden won’t do it. However the odds of about…
It’s never too early to look forward 2020 is all over bar the shouting, though there’ll be plenty of that yet. The next two and a half months may not be pretty but their essential course is set: Joe Biden will become president of the United States on 20 January next year. He may not quite be assured of victory in any of the outstanding states but he’s favourite – very strong favourite in some – to take Arizona, Nevada,…
Chart – Betdata.io It is perhaps worth restating that the reason why the Pennsylvania count is going on for so long is that there was a deliberate decision of the Republican controlled state authority to operate it that way. With so many voters choosing to cast their ballots by post the majority of states arranged postal ballots be processed as they came in in the weeks before the election. Not so in Pennsylvania where the state decided that nothing should…
It is morning now on the east coast of the US and the counting continues. In Georgia Biden is now ahead while in Pennsylvania the gap has sharply narrowed. This is in contrast to Arizona where Biden’s lead has been narrowing. Essentially Pennsylvania will be the key and it is important to note that the narrative would have been entirely different in the state if early votes had been counted first. Instead the Republican controlled state body forbid any effort…
The chart above from Betfair’s main rival, Smarkets. neatly maps what’s been happening although as of the time of writing there’s been no new state going Biden’s way. This could go into the weekend.