The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance

The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance

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Above is the market from the Smarkets exchange on the big outstanding issue from the White House election fifteen days ago. This is on whether the Democrats can win the Georgia run-offs which would give them control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. In spite of the ongoing machinations by Trump to try to hang on to the Presidency and the barrage of legal cases aimed to undermine the result it looks as though it…

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Increased geography. Devolution, independence, and Brexit

Increased geography. Devolution, independence, and Brexit

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I have been a disappointment to many people.  One niche group emerged in 2012, when my previous firm, Pinsent Masons, merged with the largest Scottish firm McGrigors.  For some time afterwards, whenever I met one of my new Scottish partners, I could see the faint shrinking when they realised that, despite my given name, I’m as English as they come.  They were always kind to the afflicted, of course, but a sense of the closest kinship would take much more…

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Given the proximity of the Scottish Parliament elections Johnson’s devolution comments might not be wise

Given the proximity of the Scottish Parliament elections Johnson’s devolution comments might not be wise

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One of the things that the pandemic has meant is that there have been almost no elections taking place in the UK since March. This was changed a little bit last month with the lifting of the ban on council by-elections in Scotland but so far we’ve not seen the regular weekly data showing what is happening when real voters cast real ballots in the rest of the UK. Coming up in May will be a very big election day…

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Betfair’s “Next President” market remains open and so far a staggering £696m of bets have been matched

Betfair’s “Next President” market remains open and so far a staggering £696m of bets have been matched

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Chart Betdata.io While other bookies and the Smarkets betting exchange might have closed their main WH2020 markets that on Betfair remains open and continues to attract big money. Punters seem to be split into two camps – those thinking that it is almost a certainty that Biden will be next President and even odds of 94% make it a value bet and those who think that somehow Trump still has a chance. The amounts being wagered at the moment are…

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Trump’s reluctance to concede could hinder his party in the Georgia Runoffs

Trump’s reluctance to concede could hinder his party in the Georgia Runoffs

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We are all aware of the mighty election battle that takes place in Georgia on January 5th in the runoff elections that could determine whether the Republicans or the Democrats control the Senate. If the Republicans hold the seats then they retain a majority. If the Democratic party wins both seats then with the casting vote of the Vice President, Kamala Harris they will have control albeit by narrowest of margins. Yet as the Washington Post notes for the Republicans…

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The Fall of The West

The Fall of The West

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I sometimes wonder if Francis Fukuyama regrets his 1992 book ‘The End of History’, written in the heady aftermath of the Cold War. It is commonly believed to have argued that mankind’s ideological evolution had ended, and the universalisation of liberal democracy was its endpoint. In truth, this does him a disservice: he framed his original essay as a question, not a statement, and was careful to say that totalitarian “events” could still happen in future but democracy would become…

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