It would appear we are only hours away from a deal
The PB Brexit Deal rolling thread
Laying Brian Rose in the London Mayoral race – the best bet out there at the moment
Thanks to Quincel (@PipsFunFacts) for this tip which it is hard to disagree with – betting against Brian Rose – the unexpected second favourite in the London mayoral race. He’s currently rated as a an 11/12% chance on the betting exchanges – Smarkets chart shown above. Brian Rose is former banker and founder, host and CEO of London Real a podcast and YouTube channel that has nearly 2 million subscribers. That figure compares with his Twitter following of just 20k. He promises to…
The latest Brexit betting from the Smarkets exchange
With just eight days to go before the end of the Brexit transition the majority of those polled say they’d support an extension
My guess on this one is that there will be some conclusion before the year end with Johnson preferring to resolve this according to the original timetable. After all his winning slogan at GE2019 was “Get Brexit Done” – though whether he is happy with a no deal I am not convinced. The current issues with cross-channel trucks is probably a taster for what a no deal might look like and, indeed, Michael Barnier, is making this point in seeking…
On the Smarkets exchange it’s a 14% chance that Trump will still be in the White House after January 20th
With 29 days to go he’s still trying to hang on The political story that most dominates my thinking at the moment is what is going on in the US and whether Trump will actually leave the White House quietly as the US constitution requires at noon Washington time on January 20th. There is little doubt that Trump is desperate to hang on in there and could try to mount very dangerous methods constitutionally in which to ensure that he…
The Georgia run-offs – almost as important as the Presidential election itself
YouTube video of Lincoln project ad The unfinished business from November 3rd Dan Pfeiffer: has it right here: It is almost impossible to overstate the stakes in the two January 5th runoff elections in Georgia. If Democrats win both races, Joe Biden has a chance to pass his economic, health care, and climate plans. He will be able to confirm his cabinet and appoint judges. Mitch McConnell will be nothing more than a dour annoyance — a grumpy speed bump…
Cockney Covid: is it already everywhere?
If it’s not, we should REALLY worry The gods have clearly decided that they’ve not done enough to us yet this year? Christmas? Pah. You develop a vaccine? Here’s a boosted version of the virus – which mutated in the same country that was the first to deploy a vaccine. Coincidence? Well, maybe. But the facts are clear. This new variant of Covid, which first became well-established in the Thames estuary areas and their bordering districts – Cockney Covid for…
After the weekend’s dramatic Boris U-turn the papers are not good for the PM this morning
The dramatic U-turn by Boris on Saturday and the travel ban that many countries have now imposed on the UK will make uncomfortable reading for the PM and his team at Number 10 this morning. Probably the most powerful is the one linked to in the Tweet above in the Times because it comes from a close aide to Boris who knows him well and highlights what she regards as a central weakness – his desire to be liked and…