Biden doing 18% better in approval terms than Trump was getting at the start of his presidency

Biden doing 18% better in approval terms than Trump was getting at the start of his presidency

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Biden is enjoying just about the best honeymoon in ratings terms compared with any other of the Presidents in the last 28 years. The figures are from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey and the comarative numbers are in the panel above. These show the opening ratings from the pollster and the best number that each of the five achieved. On the latter measure George W Bush’s astonishing 85% came in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers in…

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From Absence to Shortage to Glut – Covid 19 Vaccines in Just Nine Months

From Absence to Shortage to Glut – Covid 19 Vaccines in Just Nine Months

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Pic YouTube The COVID equivalent of the WW2 Manhatten Project Just fourteen weeks ago, at the beginning of November, there was scepticism from many about whether a Covid vaccine would be possible, even given the low bar (50% efficacy against moderate symptoms) set by the World Health Organisation and the FDA. And even if one of the vaccine candidates did work, could it be produced in volume? Since then, we have seen a few things happen in vaccine land. The…

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A Butcher’s Bill for EU

A Butcher’s Bill for EU

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On Thursday morning the number of “EU Citizens” who have been killed by COVID, based on current official counts, stood at 500,809. It has broken the big half-million. The death rate in the EU-27 has been constant at between 3000 and 3500 per day for three months now. Half of EU deaths from COVID have occurred since November 26th, at a rate of one hundred thousand per month. The rate is startlingly consistent, and has finally dropped below 3000 this…

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Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

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The Big Bang Theory has run more than a few seasons past its peak, but one of its more striking moments was Sheldon’s and Amy’s game Counterfactuals. One player had to build a question on a premise and then other players had to come up with, then defend, their answer. For example: “In a world where rhinoceroses are domesticated pets, who wins the Second World War?”   Such exercises would limber us up for a problem that might well be coming down the…

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Tonight’s big political bet – how many Senators will vote to impeach Trump?

Tonight’s big political bet – how many Senators will vote to impeach Trump?

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Smarkets exchange chart The big political story in the US continues to be on Trump and tonight should see the end of his impeachment trial in the US Senate. For that to pass it needs two thirds of the 100 members to back in and all the signs are that is that not enough Republicans will take a gamble on what could put their future in jeopardy by backing the impeachment move. It did look and hour ago that the…

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Elections 2021: who wants what, who’ll get it, and what then?

Elections 2021: who wants what, who’ll get it, and what then?

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For a mid-term, the govt is doing very well. That could spell a tricky summer for Starmer Elections are back on the menu. Lots of them. After the cancelled local election round last year, every person in Britain will have at least one vote to cast in May, many people will have several. That alone has the potential to dramatically shift the politics of the country but perhaps all the more so after a year in which the executive has…

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Polling in 15 of the world’s leading countries finds Brits at the top of the league on wanting to be vaccinated

Polling in 15 of the world’s leading countries finds Brits at the top of the league on wanting to be vaccinated

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Source Ipsos Of all 15 countries surveyed by Ipsos, the United Kingdom shows the highest level of vaccination intent: Nine in ten British adults (89%) who say they have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 agree they would get a vaccine if it were available. Among the other countries, intent to take a COVID-19 vaccine is: Very high in Brazil (88%), China (85%), Mexico (85%), Italy (80%), Spain (80%), Canada (79%), and South Korea (78%); Fairly high in Australia (73%), the…

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Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

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He could become PM with LAB getting fewer votes and seats A big advantage for Starmer over Johnson at the next general election is that he is in with a good chance of becoming PM if the Tories lose their majority. This would be the case even if LAB has fewer seats. The converse is that Johnson’s Tories almost certainly have to win an overall majority of Commons seats to retain power. This is all because if Boris fails to…

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