Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair

Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair

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On Smarkets you can lay him for 26 In previous years when there has been a London mayoral election it has been a major political betting event. That has been much less so this year because the incumbent, Sadiq Khan, looks totally dominant and all the polling has him clearly ahead. This was one of those elections that should have taken place last May but has been put back because of COVID. The big betting story has been about the…

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Command syndrome: Brexit and Covid have defined Johnson’s leadership style

Command syndrome: Brexit and Covid have defined Johnson’s leadership style

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  Settling in – not even reverting – to being a normal PM will be tough, maybe impossible Boris Johnson is an oddity of a prime minister in many ways. For someone with such an impeccable establishment background, there’s a distinct air of the outsider to him. Maybe its that while he may be amusing and entertaining to many, he’s not especially clubbable; to be at the centre of attention, he has to be to some extent apart; he always…

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Allowing door-to-door distribution of commercial leaflets but banning election ones would be thwarting the democratic process

Allowing door-to-door distribution of commercial leaflets but banning election ones would be thwarting the democratic process

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Google pics This comes ahead of “Super Thursday” when a huge number of elections are being held There’s a big row brewing over the government’s apparent efforts to ban door to door political leafleting ahead of the elections set to take place on May 6th. Of course given the pandemic it is right that there should be no doorstep canvassing but leaflets are different and it appears that different rules apply to commercial leafleting. The British civil liberties and privacy…

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The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

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Richard Tyndall on the Australian government move against Facebook So one day, when this terrible virus is finally under some semblance of control, we will be able to go back to the pub. We will be able to do something that we have been unable to do for far too long – socialise face to face with our friends. Hopefully we will be able to resurrect the Political Betting pub nights and prove to each other we really are human…

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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

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Some posters to this site have argued that leader or government approval ratings can be a better guide to general election results than the voting intention question, if not immediately before the vote, then early in the Parliament or in mid-term.  I have been meaning for some time to put this to the test.  I have used the IPSOS-MORI opinion poll and approval ratings data, which goes back to 1977, covering 11 general elections.  Conclusions I have found: three years…

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The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement

The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement

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A cautious approach could be politically more challenging With COVID rates halving every two weeks, and cases looking to drop below 1,000 a day by the second week of April the Mail continues its pressure on the PM over his plans to ease the lockdown. This is going to be a highly tricky for the prime minister who is known to take a very liberal approach when it comes to imposing new regulations on the public. But the last thing…

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Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech

Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech

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Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an MoD decision to return medals to military personnel dismissed for their sexuality (though actual financial compensation for their treatment seems to be beyond the current government). A virulently ambitious Conservative politician has found it necessary to perform a volte…

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Johnson will find it hard taking the plaudits for the vaccination success and continuing with a strict lockdown

Johnson will find it hard taking the plaudits for the vaccination success and continuing with a strict lockdown

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A big development overnight in the fight against COVID has been the news that the death rate amongst the over 80s has dropped a massive 62% in a month. This group, of course, was first in line for the jab and this figure really underlines the success of the government’s big gamble last summer to ensure rapid early supplies of vaccines. But this good news is going to make the decisions on the next stage of lockdown that much harder….

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