Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee

Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee

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After his first big speech since leaving the White House Trump has now now moved to be clear favourite on the Smarkets exchange to get the GOP nomination for the WH2024 race. There was little doubt after his performance at the CPAC conference weekend that as far as he is concerned he is the major force within his party. For better or worse if the route in the party to getting preferment requires repeating Trump’s big election lies about WH2020…

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Even if Boris’s No 10 apartment refurbishment is funded by a charity a large slice of it will effectively be at a cost to the public purse

Even if Boris’s No 10 apartment refurbishment is funded by a charity a large slice of it will effectively be at a cost to the public purse

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The Mail is reporting this morning that Boris is planning to setup a special charity to pay for what it describes as a lavish refurbishment of the apartment where the PM and his fiance live in Downing Street. The Mail goes on: Mr Johnson has complained the cost of the refurbishment by Carrie Symonds was ‘totally out of control’, the Daily Mail has been told. He reportedly said during one meeting that the sum amounted to ‘tens and tens of thousands’….

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With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point since GE2019

With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point since GE2019

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Chart Wikipedia Could the Salmond-Sturgeon row impact on May’s elections? Probably the biggest elections taking place in the UK on the first Thursday of May are for the Scottish Parliament where a majority for the SNP could be important plank in its effort to have another referendum on the country being independent. If the latest poll by Survation for the Daily Record then opinion might just be moving away a touch from Nicola Sturgeon’s party. It has not been a…

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Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

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One of the things that is rarely done in polling analysis is to look at geographical breakdowns breakdown like in the chart above based on the latest Opinium poll. In this case it is really important to take notice of this because of the huge gulf that it portrays between how Johnson and Starmer are perceived in London compared with views a hundred or so miles up the motorway in the Midlands and then the North. The clear pattern is…

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Break open your cage and VOOM: New policies for the Lib Dems

Break open your cage and VOOM: New policies for the Lib Dems

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Margaret Thatcher’s only good joke – maybe her *only* joke – was likening the Liberal Democrats to Monty Python’s dead parrot. Today, the joke rings truer than ever. The Lib Dems have only 11 MPs left. Remainerism, the party’s great cause of the last five years, has joined the choir invisible. Sir Ed Davey was elected leader and nobody has noticed. It is possible he is “just resting”. But Britain needs the Ed and his party to step up, now…

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Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

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Earlier on this week there was much excitement about that tweet from UK Briefing that the SNP had shed nearly a quarter of their vote which would fit a certain narrative given the recent extraordinary contretemps between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, and the original tweet was retweeted with wild abandon. However astute poll watchers like Anthony Wells and Britain Elects plus myself pointed out that the figures quoted by UK Briefing was a subsample of 154 which is nowhere…

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Trump might have his base but for most Americans he’s electorally toxic

Trump might have his base but for most Americans he’s electorally toxic

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The above poll finding from the well-regarded Pew Research sets out simply the challenge Republican leaders have as they meet for their annual gathering CPAC gathering in Orlando this weekend. For tomorrow Donald Trump will be the main speaker and he has already made it clear that he will use the power of his base to make himself the de facto leader. This is Trump’s party and he wants to ensure that those loyal to him will get selected for…

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