COVID vaccination – the extraordinary political divide in the US

COVID vaccination – the extraordinary political divide in the US

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One of the features of American politics I find difficult understanding is in the above polling. As can be seen supporters of Donald Trump’s party, the Republicans, have a much more negative of vaccination view than Democrats even to the extent that 42% say they don’t plan to take it This is not margin of error stuff but a huge divide and from what we know the refusers are likely putting their own lives at risk. The technical term, I’d…

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On the day that a Times poll has the Tories 13% ahead it will be Mail that will get the most attention from ministers

On the day that a Times poll has the Tories 13% ahead it will be Mail that will get the most attention from ministers

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The big polling story of the year is YouGov in the Times reporting a post-budget lead of 13% for the Tories which is greater than the 11.8% vote margin that Johnson’s party achieved at GE2019. But it will be the Daily Mail front page that will most worry Downing Street. The paper’s Simon Walter reports: Boris Johnson fears the final bill for Carrie Symonds‘s lavish makeover of their Downing Street flat could be as high as £200,000. He told aides of his worries in…

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LOST IN THE WOODS: Labour’s Challenge for the 2020s

LOST IN THE WOODS: Labour’s Challenge for the 2020s

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Cards on the table – I don’t understand the Labour Party any more. I used to – a quarter century of membership, Chair, Treasurer, Secretary, Councillor. Then, like so many long-term Labour voters, I left the party. For an opposition these should be opportune times. A pandemic which has been particularly harsh in the UK thanks to a series of government bungles has not only seen far more deaths than should have been, but needless economic pain as well.  An…

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Sunak sees huge “Next PM” betting boost after his budget

Sunak sees huge “Next PM” betting boost after his budget

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair market He’s increasing looking like the PM in waiting In the chart above is the latest betting from Betfair on who punters think will be the next prime minister based on where they are placing their money. The picture is very clear – in the space of a few hours after the budget Sunak moved up in the next PM betting from a 21% chance to a 29% one. The instant post budget polls have all…

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Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

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Analysis of the most recent Ipsos Scotland poll With two months to go until the Holyrood elections, Ipsos MORI’s latest Scotland poll yet again finds the SNP ahead on voting intention – 52% of likely voters are minded to vote SNP for their constituency, and 47% say they will vote for them on their regional list. Both the Conservatives (on 23% constituency, 22% list) and Labour (15%/14%) continue to trail well behind. But as the well worn saying goes, a…

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Is Sturgeon going to survive?

Is Sturgeon going to survive?

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When the bookies start opening markets on your survival then you know that a political leader is in trouble. Ladbrokes now make it 7/4 that she will be out this year following the latest revelations over the Salmond affair. These odds have been getting tighter over the past week as one revelation has followed another. The timing for the First Minister could not be worse given we are just two month away from the Scottish parliament elections where Nicola will…

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