What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

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Even with a lead of 11.7% Starmer’s party falls short of a majority For some time I’ve been planning a piece on how difficult it is going to be for LAB to win a majority at the next election and overnight I got down to it. I started by using the Electoral Calculus seat predictor to try to get a broad picture of the sort of poll leads that Labour requires if it is to win an overall majority next…

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YouGov finds that just 16% are opposed to an inquiry into the COVID pandemic

YouGov finds that just 16% are opposed to an inquiry into the COVID pandemic

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The above YouGov polling looks at what could be a big political issue in the coming weeks as the lockdown restrictions are eased and Britain prepares to return to “normal life”. The first phase came in on Monday and already there is a buzz about that day in mid My when pubs and restaurants open again. But it is going to be hard for ministers and particularity the PM to avoid some sort of examination of what happened and what…

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LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

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The betdata.io chart of the Betfair market tells its own story. After the vacancy in the seat was triggered punters made LAB and the Tories almost level pegging. Now that edged has out and in the latest version of the chart the Tories are 11% behind in the betting. There was a poll from Focaldata that had LAB ahead. One thing that might make this harder to call is that the pandemic means no doorstep canvassing reports of which in…

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How will Boris be judged in future polling questions like this?

How will Boris be judged in future polling questions like this?

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Above is some interesting polling from Ipsos – a question that the firm puts from time to time and no doubt in some future survey Boris will be on the list. One of the things that is key in the way prime ministers are going to be judged after their terms of office is what was happening at the time. Churchill will always be rated very highly because of his courageous decision in the first week of May 1940 to…

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Alex Salmond looks set to do a lot better amongst Scottish men than women

Alex Salmond looks set to do a lot better amongst Scottish men than women

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The latest YouGov Scotland poll that was published before the weekend gives a good indication of the challenge facing the ex-SNP leader and former Scottish First Minister as he attempts to make a comeback with his new Alba party. Amongst the men polled 17% were prepared to give him a favourable rating against 74% saying unfavourable. With the women his ratings were even worse with just 12% giving him a favourable rating against 79% saying unfavourable. To the question “From…

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A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024?

A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024?

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No President in the post-war era has not sought re-election*. No President as old as Joe Biden has ever been elected (by a margin of several years). In 2024 one of these records will be broken, and there’s value in betting on which. Last week Joe Biden gave his first solo press conference of his tenure, and was asked whether he’ll run again. He says that “My plan is to run for re-election. That’s my expectation,” which shouldn’t be a…

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I’d like to see betting markets on how many MPs and MSPs defect to Alba by the end of May

I’d like to see betting markets on how many MPs and MSPs defect to Alba by the end of May

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It has been quite an exciting 48 hours in Scotland with the announcement of the Alba Party by former First Minister Alex Salmond, we’ve seen two defections from the Westminster delegation which Ian Blackford has reacted to the defections dispassionately to rival the the way so many Conservatives handled the defection of Mark Reckless in 2014. Blackford’s comment reminded me of one Conservative’s observation at the time of the defection of Mark Reckless “I can’t say the word c**t but…

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The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

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Boris Johnson isn’t the only British politician experiencing a vaccine boost The voting intention section of the YouGov polling of Wales was quite disheartening for Labour. Regular readers of this website are aware that leader ratings and other related supplementaries are often better pointers of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures ergo there is a bit of hope for Labour. As we can see in the second tweet Mark Drakeford’s ratings show he is the first Welsh Prince of…

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