Why the likely CON win in Hartlepool won’t be as big a deal as some are saying

Why the likely CON win in Hartlepool won’t be as big a deal as some are saying

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There’s a good by James Johnson in the Times on why the likely CON victory tonight in Hartlepool won’t be as dramatic as it sounds. He argues: …the constituency has a uniquely large Brexit Party vote from 2019. Looking just at seats where the Conservatives were in second place, this was the largest in the country — and the third-largest overall. It is one of only five of 650 seats where the Brexit Party share was above 20 per cent. …That…

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And for election day – The Uncultured Mr Maslow

And for election day – The Uncultured Mr Maslow

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Home ownership – the issue that could eventually bring the government down? So, in the good old days there was a Left Wing party (which emphasised government action to minimise income differentials) and a Right Wing party (who preferred a less active state). But then a few things changed. Firstly, there was a (perhaps temporary) consensus about economics and the role of the state. And then there was “the culture wars”. Simply, (and completely simplifying) this was the idea that…

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The election might be tomorrow but some of the counts could spill over into the weekend or even next week

The election might be tomorrow but some of the counts could spill over into the weekend or even next week

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Based on information that has been collated by Tory peer, Lord Hayward, the vast majority of authorities will not be counting on the night. This is a great pity and means that the early “story” of the election will be determined by those that are. The overnight counts that I am aware of are: Colchester Borough CouncilDerby City CouncilDudley MBC*Essex County Council – Brentwood, Chelmsford, Harlow, Rochford, Tendring, probably UttlesfordHartlepool Parliamentary By Election (Expected to declare around 4:00am)Harlow Borough CouncilMayor…

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Looking forward to tomorrow’s locals from Michael Thrasher

Looking forward to tomorrow’s locals from Michael Thrasher

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By some margin forecasting this year’s council seat gains and losses in 143 local authorities should be avoided at all costs.  With that caveat in mind, let’s have a go. We would normally base our assumptions of the likely outcome on the pattern shown in hundreds of council by-elections.  But these have been suspended in England for over a year – so no data!  Instead, we are using national polling figures for this exercise. Before we start some points of…

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Just two days to go to Super Thursday and the Tories now an 83% chance on Betfair to take Hartlepool

Just two days to go to Super Thursday and the Tories now an 83% chance on Betfair to take Hartlepool

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If punters have got this right then the Tories are heading for a sensational victory in the Hartlepool by-election on Thursday. The big driver today has been the second Survation constituency poll on Hartlepool showing an even wider gap than was reported four weeks ago. Then the Tories had a 7% lead. In the latest small sample poll, which was carried out from April 23rd to 29th, that is now 17%. The figures are with changes on the general election:…

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The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

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The modern era of political betting began in 1963 when Ladbrokes’ Ron Pollard opened up a book on the Conservative Party leadership contest. Shrewd punters could back the outsider Alec Douglas-Home at 16/1 over the hot 5/4 favourite Rab Butler….. In recent years we have seen political betting reach new heights, becoming an integral part of the political narrative itself. Figures as diverse as Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump have traded on their tag as “underdogs” to cause…

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The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham

The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham

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If you had asked the Lib Dems after the 2019 General Election about the sort of seat where they would like to fight a by-election they would have probably said somewhere that voted Remain, where they were in a clear second place and not too far from the M25. The last point is relevant because one of the prerequisites to pull off by-election surprises in the past is by being able to flood the area for several weeks with experienced…

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