BREXIT: Undoing (some of) the damage. Part 1: The Principles

BREXIT: Undoing (some of) the damage. Part 1: The Principles

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Just a few weeks in, and the practical effects of re-erecting the trade barriers which the UK spent 40 years helping to dismount are becoming more obvious by the day. Remarkably, it seems to have come as a complete surprise to the government that the EU rules which it had itself been enforcing up until Dec 31st in respect of imports from ‘third countries’ now apply to us.  Every day, new stories emerge of businesses cruelly throttled by the extra red…

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The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

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The main driver of the GE2019 “red wall” gains was the then LAB leader One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited. If as looks increasingly likely neither the Tories…

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With the US Senate about to start the Trump impeachment process the latest tally has the ex-President surviving

With the US Senate about to start the Trump impeachment process the latest tally has the ex-President surviving

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My guess is that we will be checking back to this graphic in the Washington Post a fair bit in the next few days as the process to impeach former President Trump starts in the US Capitol building – the scene of the Trump inspired riot just 34 days ago that left five people dead. Each red block in the chart represents the view of a GOP Senator with yellow indicating position unknown. The Blue blocks are Democrats. At the…

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The Future Now – the biggest impact of COVID

The Future Now – the biggest impact of COVID

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Arguably the most significant science development of the last half century It’s always hard to know how the future will judge the present. Events which utterly dominated government policy and public discourse can be forgotten in a matter of years. Other events were passed by almost unnoticed at the time, and yet – in retrospect – seem incredibly important. So, here goes. 2020 and 2021 will be seen as a turning point. They will be considered watershed years: Before CV…

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Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

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Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus.  The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals.  Their proposals for 2012 and 2018 both came to nothing.  They are now beavering away on their proposals for 2024. Boundary reviews get wonks very excited.  By and large, they should simmer down.  They’re not half as important as is assumed, particularly for Labour and the Conservatives.  Here’s why. Notional…

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How do you solve a solution like the Northern Ireland Protocol?

How do you solve a solution like the Northern Ireland Protocol?

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Much like getting your girlfriend pregnant on a pull out sofa there’s a deep sense of irony that the Conservative & Unionist Party, aided and abetted by the DUP, have via Brexit done more to weaken Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom than the IRA. As we can see from Northern Ireland pollster LucidTalk, 77% of all voters in the province and 67% of DUP voters think Boris Johnson’s Northern Ireland protocol will weaken Northern Ireland position in the…

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Can Labour ever win again?

Can Labour ever win again?

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Labour has lost the last four general elections. It has not won the popular vote in England since 2001; twenty years ago. We can go further: aside from the landslide Blair victories of 1997 and 2001 Labour has not comfortably won 40%+ of the vote since 1970; over fifty years ago. Labour is not in power in Westminster or Scotland. It may shortly lose (or be forced to share) power in Wales. It does not directly control any county councils…

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