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There is some great analysis on voting behaviour in the latest edition of the New Statesman which today publishes the chart above in an article by Ben Walker. As can be seen British Election Study data on what happened in December 2019 finds that if you exclude retirees then LAB was in the lead by a margin of 3.1%. But if you include them the Tories lead by 11%. As well as being pro-Tory a big factor about the old…

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During the day Keir Starmer has continued to recieve laudits for how he coped with the Piers Morgan grilling last night and there’s been a little bit of movement in his price on the Betfair next PM market. The significance of this is that Starmer’s position had been in decline since the May 6th local and his party’s loss of the Hartlepool by-election and this might just put an end to the slide. We should however expect a poor performance…

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Now will Johnson agree to a similar quizzing? I have just caught up with last night’s interview on ITV between Piers Morgan and Keir Starmer and overall he was right to take up the invitation. It has been very difficult during the pandemic for any politicians other than ministers to get any attention from the media that they have to take what is on offer. The Telegraph summed it up like this Both men came off well in this meaty…

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Retaining current controls is going to be difficult

Although we have largely igonored US politic since Biden was inaugurated the former president continues to work hard to undermine the WH2020 outcome and remains the most powerful political force in his party. No Republican politician who wants to be re-elected is going to deny Trump’s big lie that the last election was stolen from him. Even big figures like Senator Mitch McConnell are going along with this even though it is in direct contradiction to what they said on…

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What is dominating politics where I live at the moment is nothing to do with the pandemic or Brexit but about the planned East West railway – an overall project that was announced by Chris Grayling when he was TransportSec in 2017. Most of the route between Oxford and Cambridge uses existing tracks but for the central section a completely new line is going to have to be built and working out exactly where that will run impacts a lot…

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With Opnium showing a markedly differently CON lead than the other firms it is useful just look at all of the numbers firm by firm. Most have the Tories in a fairly tight 42-46% range With LAB the range at 28% – 36% is wider. My view is that both YouGov and Opinium’s LAB ratings could be thought of as possible outliers. There’s a big range with the LDs from the 6% of Opinium to the 10% of Survation. The…

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There has been much talk, since the advent of the vaccines, of a ‘return to normal’ in our lives with many organisations, not least Government, pressing for getting things back on track as soon as safely possible particularly in areas such as education. And whilst there is much debate about what is or is not ‘safely possible’ and at what point normality should return, no one seems to have asked whether we actually want to go back to normal or…

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