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There is little doubt that the big political story between now and June 21st when the final COVID controls are due to be lifted will be whether there will be a deferment. Smarkets have now got a betting market up with deferment currently at 1.51 and the timetable being followed at 2.26. These are the rules: This market relates to whether all legal limits on social contact in England (in the context of coronavirus restrictions) will be removed on 21…

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Or will the memory of TMay’s GE2017 decision have a cautionary effect? In normal circumstances for this Parliament to run its full course means the next general election at the latest should take place in May 2024 – but could Johnson be tempted to go early? Even if he doesn’t get round to repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act the fact that he has a big majority and the obvious desire of Starmer to have an election as early as…

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Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if the Tories should lose their 29%…

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Developments on two fronts today – one positive for those looking for a return to normality and one that is very negative. The so called R Rate is up in England to between 1 and 1.2. The R number, of course, is a measure of the average number of people an infected person will go on to infect. When this is going downwards below 1 COVID is in decline but when it goes above, like that announced today, the battle…

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The really hard part of all of this for ministers is that the vast majority of adults have now been vaccinated and it becomes hard to make the case for the continuation of strict travel controls. They got the plaudits for the vaccine roll-out and the danger is they could see the opposite over this. What many will find hard to understand is why those who have been fully vaccinated will have to be subject to long airport queues and…

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The government’s move this afternoon to change the status of Portugal is a massive blow to tens of thousands of people who had booked because until today this was the one big tourist area where travel was allowed with no reqirement to self isolate on return. What is causing consternation in the travel industry is that ministers like Shapps are making these announcements without giving the full detail of how decisions are taken. There is a public expectation that the…

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