politicalbetting.com

Over the past week or so I have been suggesting that the best value political bet at the moment is the 20/1 or thereabouts that you can get on the LDs taking Chesham and Amersham which votes on June 17th. This has been reinforced by this report from the Independent . With a 16,223 majority to overturn from the 2019 general election, Lib Dem candidate Sarah Green has a mountain to climb to challenge for a shock victory in the…

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Generally I do not work Sundays and never really get the chance of getting into the findings of my favourite pollster, Opinium, which comes out every other weekend in the Observer. It has by far the best and comprehensive datasets of any pollster and has been running regular approval ratings longer than any other firm and its surveys always carry a range of leadership questions. The fieldwork for today’s poll took place after Wednesday’s seven hour appearance by Johnson’s former…

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With our lives continuing to be constrained by the anti-COVID protection measures perceptions like the above look set to have a big impact. The most damaging one above is on the statement about tens of thousands having died. What is interesting is that the same poll has the Tories unchanged with a 10% lead. An issue here, of course, is that normal politics has been put on hold for some time. It is when that returns we will be able…

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The Betdata.io chart of the Betfair market has shown very little real movement since the former LAB MP quit the seat after becoming the May of West Yorkshire. Given how poorly Labour is doing at the moment you would have thought that the party would have done everything in its power to stop by-elections from happening. Not so – the former MP was allowed to run for the mayoralty and now Starmer has another problem on his hands. Things have…

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We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied. The only problem is that this appears to be the first time NCP has asked the question so we have nothing to compare them with. For the leader rating series I regard the most highly is from Opinium which has been asking its approval ratings…

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Yet again Boris & co are over-promising and failing to deliver Many of the front pages this morning give a taste of the likely reaction if the June 21st lifting has to be put back. The big question here is how much the government will get the blame. Clearly ministers have to take into account the spread of the new variant and its likely health implications but so many had planned their lives around lockdown finally coming to an end…

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Accusations of lying flew around the Select Committee room – mostly directed at Matt Hancock. A Minister who, if Cummings is to be believed, could not be trusted, indeed was not trusted by the Cabinet Secretary. Or others.(Apparently. We have yet to hear from Mr Sedwill.) Indeed, judging by how often Cummings was asking the PM to sack his Health Secretary, it’s a wonder anyone in government had any time to worry about dealing with the pandemic so busy were…

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