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Even though 78 year old Biden has only been in office since January the speculation is starting to build around 2024. Is Biden, as some reports suggest, going to seek re-election in three years’ time when he will be in his early 80s. The age factor is important because he is already the oldest president in US history and it is really quite hard to see how someone of such advanced years could handle the physical and mental challenges of…

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Inevitably there is now a market up on the next Foreign Secretary and this market from Smarkets is worth a look (even if there’s next to no liquidity in it.) I do not expect Dominic Raab to be an ex Foreign Secretary shortly because if there’s one thing Boris Johnson is tolerant of it is incompetent ministers, in other eras perpetual incompetence and bullying would have seen the likes of Gavin Williamson and Priti Patel sacked long ago so Raab…

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Apparently this was with the approval of the PM Another good piece of reporting by Tim Shipman which will put pressure on Raab and raise questions about his boss. Read the full account linked to above.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will hold terrible, often fatal, consequences for many people. Interpreters, who assisted Western forces. Journalists, who provided information to their people. Women and girls, regardless of their actions. But, from a political betting perspective, the most notable consequence is a far less important one: It’s been an awful week for Joe Biden. Smarkets allow us to bet on Joe Biden’s approval rating on his one year anniversary (of inauguration, not election). FiveThirtyEight keeps a weighted…

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The above clip is of the then LAB PM, Jim Callaghan arriving back at Heathrow in early 1979 being questioned about the then industrial and political situation where his party no longer had a majority. The months that followed this were later called “The Winter of Discontent”. The Sun front page the following day ran the headline “Crisis – What crisis” although as can seen in the clip he never used those words. The reason I put this up is…

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The Daily Mail gets its teeth in As I indicated in my post yesterday I thought that Raab would survive as Foreign Sec following the revelation that he did not make phone calls to his Afghan opposite number in order to protect the Afghan interpreters at the UK’s embassy there. This was followed yesterday afternoon by a PR stunt with Raab sitting at his desk apparently making phone calls from his desk – a move the Mail is calling risible….

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As can be seen in the latest WH2024 betting Biden has taken a bit of a tumble following the blistering criticism that he has been under after his Afghanistan withdrawal decision. It looks as though he has failed though it was his predecessor, Trump, who reached a deal with the Taliban. When you have had military involvement on the scale of the US in Afghanistan over the past two decades then inevitably this will impact on the position of the…

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