politicalbetting.com

Preventing the 8.8% pension rise would require legislation The former pensions minister during the Coalition government, Steve Webb, has made an acute observation about the government’s state pension triple lock dilemma – the law requires that the triple lock is applied. He noted in the I “People are still missing the fact that the law of the land requires earnings indexation when it comes to the State pension uplift..“Forget the triple lock, forget the manifesto pledge. There is a law…

Read More Read More

The RCP chart shows the trend in Biden’s average approval ratings which in the past few days have slumped into negative territory for the first time. Looking back the early days were the easy ones when large numbers of Americans, mostly shocked by the January 6th events, and were just grateful that Trump was no longer in the White House. This gave the country’s oldest President ever a great honeymoon when it came to the ratings. That has been in…

Read More Read More

The SNP hasn’t totally collapsed in Scotland Just looking at the figures in the latest Redfield poll it appears as though it is an outlier. Firstly the CON 43% looks too high compared with other recent surveys and then there is the SNP share. Just 3% is way below what the party achieved at GE2019 and what other polls have been reporting. As Nate Silver is always pointing out we should expect outliers. Indeed pollsters which never produce them should…

Read More Read More

The above data splits from the latest Opinium approval ratings of the PM show just how Brexit continues to totally dominate views of Johnson. Very helpfully Opinium produces a regular split in their data tables separating out by social class linked to Brexit vote. The above from the latest poll is, I think, the worst it has been for the PM from both ABC1 and C2DE Remainers. Net ratings of minus 43 and 49 are very poor particularly as we…

Read More Read More

The last decade and a half of German politics have been the story of one person. Angela Merkel, leader of the CDU/CSU Union, has been as dominant as any figure can be in a PR system. A very narrow victory in 2005 has been followed by comfortable wins in 2009, 2013 (where she came just 5 seats short of a majority!), and 2017. But after 16 years in office she is handing over before new elections on 26 September, and…

Read More Read More

By my reckoning Starmer’s LAB needs to gain in excess of 123 seats at the next election in order to secure a majority. The table from above from the excellent Election Polling site lists some of the seats that the party taking in order to achieve power. I’ve selected the segment from target seat 113 because that gets us into the area of potential gains that Starmer’s party needs to be making if there is any chance of securing a…

Read More Read More

Even though 78 year old Biden has only been in office since January the speculation is starting to build around 2024. Is Biden, as some reports suggest, going to seek re-election in three years’ time when he will be in his early 80s. The age factor is important because he is already the oldest president in US history and it is really quite hard to see how someone of such advanced years could handle the physical and mental challenges of…

Read More Read More