He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind

He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind

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When the final word on Brexit is written I think the greatest blunder(s) were committed by the Democratic Unionist Party, first off by backing Brexit, which many warned would place Northern Ireland’s place in the Union at risk, and then rejecting Theresa May’s deal, the latter is something which they now regret after Boris Johnson politically cuckolded them by placing a border in the Irish Sea. There’s been a reckoning for the DUP judging by this latest poll which sees…

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Are Trump and other top Republicans secret Democratic Party agents?

Are Trump and other top Republicans secret Democratic Party agents?

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This chart from the NY Times & the MIT Election Lab is quite the eye opener and seems to back the other analysis that Republican voters in America are shunning the vaccines because of the previous rhetoric of Trump and other GOPers. This has a major impact on American politics and betting. The problem for Trump and the GOP leadership have realised that dead voters cannot vote, pace Northern Ireland, but sadly for Trump and the likes of Mitch McConnell…

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The UK Government says opinion polls are more important than actual votes

The UK Government says opinion polls are more important than actual votes

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Governing by opinion polls is a disaster in the making especially on nation changing matters. On Friday it was reported A second Scottish independence referendum could take place if polling consistently shows 60 percent of Scots desire a fresh vote, according to a senior U.K. Cabinet minister. The Scottish National Party has pushed for a second independence referendum since they lost a 2014 vote. They were emboldened earlier this year after pro-independence parties won a majority of seats in May’s Scottish parliamentary…

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Let them eat cake

Let them eat cake

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The optics look very bad from the Chancellor. Much attention has been focussed on the triple lock but another area which may cause the government trouble is the forthcoming cut to the universal credit uplift. The optics of cutting universal credit in October whilst giving pensioners an 8% increase (or any increase) really look at best unfortunate and at worst callous. Ed Miliband will attest that opposing austerity isn’t a vote winner but this time it might be. Unlike the…

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Let us talk about the man who wanted to castrate Michael Gove

Let us talk about the man who wanted to castrate Michael Gove

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Ben Wallace has cut a repeatedly frustrated and forlorn figure in recent days as it appears thanks to Pen Farthing’s PR campaign which appeared to prioritise animals over humans, as we can see in the tweet above. I suspect as a former member of the Scots Guards Ben Wallace was channelling the motto of that august regiment, nemo me impune lacessit. I’ve always liked Ben Wallace for not sugarcoating things, most (in)famously in 2016 when Michael Gove torpedoed Boris Johnson’s…

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LAB is going to be a lot harder to demonise next time without Corbyn

LAB is going to be a lot harder to demonise next time without Corbyn

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Before I head off for my Lake District holiday some thoughts on the big picture – the next UK general election. The critical thing about next time is whether the Tories can maintain a working majority and that means, I’d suggest, limiting seat losses to below 47. Last time the Tory GB vote share lead was 11.8% and polls indicating that it is closer than that point to Labour gains and Tory losses. We have had an interesting few months…

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Just about all the national papers lead on the same story

Just about all the national papers lead on the same story

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In the betting Biden’s 2024 re-election odds fall to 19% In my view the most poignant front page is from the Daily Mail which reminds us of what Biden said when he announced his pull-out decision. I am beginning to wonder whether he will decide to run again next time when he will be 82. Generally, new presidents go onto to win re-election. Trump, of course, is an example of one who didn’t and the question marks over the current…

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Two new VI voting polls out today adding to the confusion

Two new VI voting polls out today adding to the confusion

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After my piece yesterday suggesting that this week’s Redfield poll might be an outlier we’ve had two other Westminster VI poll out today. ComRes has a CON lead of 7% while Kantar has it down to 3%. As far as it is possible to make seat projections Kantar would suggest that Starmer could become PM in a minority government while Redfield would have another Tory majority. The best thing you can say is that at least the polls are not…

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