If you’re betting on Raab as next PM/Con leader look away now

If you’re betting on Raab as next PM/Con leader look away now

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The more the public see of Raab recently they appear to dislike him more. I suspect what most people will remember about Raab is his role in the ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan and left many people who helped us at the mercy of the Taliban whilst he went and stayed on holiday. Ladbrokes have a market up on whether Raab wins or doesn’t win ANY seat at the next general election, the 2019 election saw his majority slashed from 23,298…

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He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber, to the lascivious pleasing of a lute

He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber, to the lascivious pleasing of a lute

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As someone who adores Shakespeare it has always been a source of glee that the winter of (our) discontent features so heavily in the lexicon of British political discourse. The winter of discontent was responsible for the most important post war inflexion point in this country’s politics, the premiership of Margaret Thatcher and eighteen years of Conservative rule. In late 1978 Labour led in the polls and Jim Callaghan was preferred to Margaret Thatcher on the best PM question then…

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Invincible Boris Johnson’s proposals appear to be popular

Invincible Boris Johnson’s proposals appear to be popular

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Today’s Times reports on a couple of polls, first of is a YouGov poll they commissioned which shows Two thirds of the public said they would support national insurance going up from 12 per cent to 13 per cent for the NHS and social care, YouGov found. Increasing national insurance would be more popular than putting up income tax, the poll suggests. Fifty-one per cent backed a 1p increase in income tax for increased health spending. I wonder if this is…

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Will Gavin Williamson still be in the cabinet on 31/12/2021?

Will Gavin Williamson still be in the cabinet on 31/12/2021?

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Gavin Williamson is here to stay? Today’s Mail on Sunday reports we may have a cabinet reshuffle on Thursday/Friday and Dominic Raab and Gavin Williamson, men so incompetent that they paid full price for a DFS sofa, are at risk, but this piece is going to look at the former Defence Secretary who was fired for leaking national security secrets. In most other eras Gavin Williamson would either never been appointed as Education Secretary or been sacked several times over,…

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Like a bad smell Trump isn’t going anywhere

Like a bad smell Trump isn’t going anywhere

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Jim Jordan’s comments confirm what many of us have expected for a while. My view is that absent actuarial reasons or if he is in prison then Trump will run for the GOP nomination (and win it.) If he is going to announce his intention to run in the next few days then you might want to get onboard the Trump train before it is too late, if you’ve been laying Trump for the GOP nomination/Presidency you may have toupée…

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For those betting on a Labour poll lead in 2021

For those betting on a Labour poll lead in 2021

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This twitter thread from Opinium’s Chris Curtis makes sense to me and if there is a backlash from Rishi Sunak’s proposals then there’s a couple of betting implications. First of all I suspect Sunak will become very unpopular amongst Conservative MPs and the Conservative Party core vote of pensioners so if you’re not laying Sunak then you should be especially if you followed the PB tip of 250/1 to succeed Boris Johnson. Secondly those who have bet on Labour having…

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Democrats look to be weathering the California Recall Election

Democrats look to be weathering the California Recall Election

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On Tuesday 14 September California votes on whether to replace the Governor, Gavin Newsom. California has a strong ‘recall election’ law, allowing ad hoc challenges to be made against incumbents. Indeed, virtually every Governor for the last few decades has faced serious attempts at a recall election, though none has made it to the number of signatures required to trigger a full ballot since 2003 (the one where Arnold Schwarzenegger won). Ordinarily Newsom would be totally safe, given he is…

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The retirees back the Tories so expect the workers to see their taxes rise

The retirees back the Tories so expect the workers to see their taxes rise

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Today reports emerged in several newspapers that the government is looking at increasing national insurance contributions to overhaul social care. I’m so old I remember when the Conservative Party I used to be a member of rightly described increases on national insurance as a tax on jobs, as this chart below shows. In my lifetime when the Conservatives start increasing taxes against the manifesto commitments or start messing around with taxation related to houses then they pay a huge electoral…

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