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So as is usual it is the Tories who hold the last of the main party conferences and the party always follows immediately after Labour. I wonder whether after Johnson has made his final speech on Wednesday morning whether this chart will look different. The big difference for the Tories is that they are the party of government and can make policy announcements that can actually be implemented, This is why there is likely to be a bigger media presence…

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After last weekend the EU can finally stop putting off decisions until after the German election and start putting them off until after the French election. Very much on the horizon, voters go to the polls in April 2022 to determine if Emmanuel Macron will win a second term or who his replacement will be. A brief refresher: The French presidential election uses a two round system. If no candidate wins 50% in the 1st round (and no-one ever does)…

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Although there has been no polling uplift for LAB since Starmer’s big speech on Wednesday those betting on who will be next PM have edged back to Starmer and he is now clear favourite in the “Next PM” betting. The Betdata.io chart above shows the movement over the past six months and as can be seen less than two months ago he was being rated at an 11.8% chance. At 1345 today he was a 23% chance which is quite…

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If not already done, the sentencing remarks of Lord Justice Fulford should be read by every MP, Cabinet Minister, police chief, Police & Crime Commissioner and anyone else involved in our criminal justice system. Paragraphs 19 and 23 set out eloquently – in words which should be taken particularly to heart by the Home Secretary and the Justice Secretary – the importance of law and order and what happens when trust in the police is undermined. As the Judge put…

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He won’t be allowed back into the PLP Getting Jeremy Corbyn back into the Parliamentary Labour Party is the top aim for his supporters but, I believe the way they have conducted their campaign in Brighton last week, has made it impossible for Keir Starmer to restore the Labour Whip. Back in August, according to the Observer, the Campaign for Labour Party Democracy (CLPD) was circulating a conference resolution which would have stripped the leader of his disciplinary powers and…

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We have reported on one or two innovative moves by the Smarkets betting exchange ever since Shadsy switched from Ladbrokes to the exchange which is seeking to take on Betfair. One thing that Betfair would surely never do is what Smarkets have open today – betting on the Hetton Ward by-election for Sunderland council where the total votes cast might not top 2k. But as we see every Thursday there is a ripple of activity late evening on PB and…

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I never know what to make of quickie polls like this but Opinium’s one following yesterday’s Starmer speech look good for the LAB leader especially when compared with first conference speeches from BoJo and Corbyn. The only difference I would suggest is that Starmer has had to wait nearly 18 months to make this while those for the other two took place much closer to their leadership election victories.

So after eighteen months in the job Starmer has had his first chance to address his party. I was quite surprised by the heckling which he dealt with well and possibly encouraged most in the audience to be even more enthusiastic about what he was saying. This was the assessment of the Guardian’s Zoe Williams: Starmer’s speech revealed three critical weakness – the first rhetorical, the second programmatic, the third both. But it wasn’t without merit. With long, impassioned personal…

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