politicalbetting.com

A LAB majority is almost totally out of the question Let us go back to the December 2019 general election which saw Corbyn’s Labour suffer its worst general election result since 1935. Their leader then was electoral poison and the Tories were able to use the threat of a Corbyn victory as a great turnout driver for CON supporters and a dampener on those thinking of tactically voting Labour. I am a Lib Dem voting in the tightest LAB-CON marginal…

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We haven’t looked at the US for some time – maybe because President Biden makes it so much less newsworthy than his predecessor. Even though it is less than a year since the US voted in November next year we have the Midterms and the following Spring we are likely to see the first phases of the WH2024 nomination race. My own view is that even though he will be well into his 80s that Biden will seek to seek…

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One thing I’ve been looking for in the coverage of the Labour conference is who would be the runners if for whatever reason Starmer ceases to be leader. With the pandemic totally dominating everything since the general election it has been a struggle for opposition politicians to get a look in. The person who has really impressed me so far is the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Judging by the TV coverage she had a good day yesterday with her speech…

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In what is the first time Starmer has been level in any poll when compared with Johnson the two are level pegging on who would make the most capable PM. The change is more down to Johnson’s ratings dropping sharply than Starmer’s moving up. In the telephone poll, which was carried out in the six days until Friday t,the firm found LAB to be just 3% behind compared with 11% in their last Political Monitor in early August. Also in…

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The experience of last time is that they won’t A long-time PBer sent me an email last night: It can’t take long to sort out – once you have filled you car, you can’t panic buy anymore. Whereas you can buy months of loo roll! At least, that is my hope – if I can’t fill up by the end of the week, my daughter can’t go to uni! (Or at least, she can’t take much stuff! I am not so…

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Interesting polling from Opinium on who/what is to blame for the ongoing situation. Clearly everything is in the context of the pandemic which gets the most blame – but it is not that far ahead of the government, Brexit and Johnson. The big question is how long this is going to take to sort out. Theoretically, it is nothing like the September 2000 fuel crisis where the issue was that refined fuel was blocked from leaving the refinery. Here the…

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One of the hard things about running a website about political betting is that for large parts of each year there is nothing to bet on which will be resolved within a week or so. I am sure that Shadsy, ex-political man at Ladbrokes who is now with Smarkets, feels the same and it is no surprise that we have seen an uptick in activity with his new firm since his arrival. A recent Smarkets market was on whether LAB…

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