The rise and rise of Trump in the WH2024 nomination betting

The rise and rise of Trump in the WH2024 nomination betting

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Following on from the previous post by TSE the above chart shows the latest betting for the Republican nomination at the 2024 White House election. As can be seen Trump is getting a tighter and tighter favourite all the time and could soon be odds on. This sort of mirrors the Democratic nomination betting where Biden, who will be 81 in November 2024, is still the clear favourite to secure the nomination and retain the Presidency. My only WH2024 bets…

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Further signs that the GOP will steal the 2024 election

Further signs that the GOP will steal the 2024 election

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In plain sight the GOP is doing all it can to ensure that only they can ‘win’ the election, there’s the voter restrictions being placed , ‘in 2021 legislative sessions, lawmakers in 28 states have pushed a whopping 106 bills that would restrict voting access.’ If those voting changes fail to stop the Democrats winning the election then there’s plans to overturn democracy by using legislative means, something that was advocated during the 2020 election. Reuters have carried out some…

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The only thing we have to Keir is Keir itself

The only thing we have to Keir is Keir itself

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Sir Keir Starmer might be a symptom not a cause of a long term Labour malaise. Sir Keir Starmer attracts a lot of criticism for his failure to perform better against Boris Johnson, looking at the polling figures (both voting intention and leadership metrics) it appears at the next general election Sir Keir is set play the role of Khalid bin Barghash to Boris Johnson’s Harry Rawson. I have a bit of sympathy for Starmer, one because of the toxic…

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On the face of this should be a safe CON by-election hold

On the face of this should be a safe CON by-election hold

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Following the very sad demise at such a young age of James Brokenshire we now have another Conservative Westminster by-election defence in the offing. The GE2019 outcome from Old Bexley and Sidcup makes it look a very safe seat indeed and it would be a sensation if the Tories do not hold on. There are two figures I always check first when a specific constituency comes into play – how did it vote in the 2016 Referendum and what proportion…

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Boris Johnson isn’t under threat

Boris Johnson isn’t under threat

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Under Boris Johnson the Tory poll lead seems untouchable. Untroubled by queues for petrol, supply chain issues, inflation increases, regular scandals, foreign policy mishaps, the list of things which sunk previous governments but barely scratches this one goes on and on. Many people conclude, quite reasonably, that Johnson is central to this appeal and under him the Tories are strong favourites to win another majority at the next election. So why do bookies think there is a 1 in 3…

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Could Bojo be tempted to cash in on current polling by going early?

Could Bojo be tempted to cash in on current polling by going early?

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Undoubtedly the Conservatives are doing very well at the stage to be maintaining the poll lead over Labour and the question must arise as to whether the prime minister will decide to go for it early before things like the tax rises due for next spring come into effect? No doubt we are going to see increasing media speculation over this but I am not convinced – mind you I wasn’t convinced in April 2017 when TMay surprised us all…

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