October’s polling sees very little change in the big picture
Tories ahead but well short of the 11.8% lead of GE2019 Some of these polls could see Johnson having to leave Number 10. Mike Smithson
Burnham is overrated as the 22% favourite to succeed Starmer
I have made this point before but I will make it again that punters are over-rating Andy Burnham’s chances of becoming the next Labour leader. In my view he is favourite in the betting almost solely on the basis that he has higher name recognition and he has competed for the job twice before. What people seem to be forgetting is how poorly Burnham performed when he first ran for the post in the aftermath of the party”s GE2015 defeat…
Modi’s net zero in just 49 years is not a good sign
Climate change: The huge opinion gap in the US
As the world’s focus moves to the Glasgow climate change conference YouGov US has published the above polling which I find quite shocking. The figures for college graduates show the huge gulf that exists with just 21% of Republican ones agreeing with the statement compared with 95% of Democrat college grads. The detail of the polling offered three options and I have chosen the above one to illustrate best the great divide. Maybe the approach of GOP voters is a…
It’s time to end this clocks moving back nonsense
London and Scotland polling finds support for all year BST Each year on the day the clocks move back I get really irritated because to me it is crazy. During the winter the amount of daylight hours is very limited so why not make it so that we can enjoy what there is to the maximum. Instead, we have light mornings and things go dark in the mid to late afternoon. I am glad to see that I am not…
Is Gareth Southgate going to follow in Sir Keir Starmer’s footsteps?
Just look at some of the sporting knighthoods awarded the last twenty-five years. Sir Lewis Hamilton, Sir Andy Murray, Sir Alex Ferguson, Sir Bobby Robson, Sir Kenny Dalglish, Sir Geoff Hurst, Sir Mo Farah, Sir Bradley Wiggins, Sir Geoff. Boycott, Sir Andrew Strauss, Sir Alastair Cook, Sir Steve Redgrave, Sir Matthew Pinsent, Sir Clive Woodward, Sir Ian McGeechan, and Sir Ben Ainslie. Looking at that not quite exhaustive list there’s a thread of them being (world) record breaking/world/European champions/Olympic winning…
It’s the economy stupid?
Many people, myself included, think based on the current polling and historical precedents, the government are on course to win a majority at the the next general election. Yet there’s a nagging feeling that there could be a black swan or just a regular swan that might upend those assumptions about the next general election. Looking at those findings from YouGov atop this thread, there’s potential for a cost of living crisis damaging the government. It is possible that any…
Trump becoming an even stronger favourite in the WH2024 betting
Even though it is more than three years away betting on the next White House race remains active and as can be seen the loser who refused to admit defeat. Trump, is clear favourite and he continues to totally dominate Republican politics. Much of that power would be diluted if he ruled out a run. Biden who will be 79 next month remains politically active but it is hard seeing someone in their early 80s, as he would be, having…