Not good numbers with by-elections coming up The latest poll from Ipsos-MORI, the firm that has been political polling in the UK since the 1970s, is out and has bad news for Johnson and worrying news for the Tories. The voting figures are: LAB: 36%=: CON: 35% -4: GRN: 11%: +5 LD: 9%= Overall satisfaction with Boris Johnson has also fallen. A third (34%) are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Prime Minister (down 5 points…
In the past few days several PBers have commented that they think that the Tories will win another majority at the next election. This is in contrast to the trend on the betting markets where the chances of such an outcome, as rated by punters, has edged down a bit. This is entirely in line with current polling with two firms now having the CON lead down to one. This represents a 5.4% CON to LAB swing since GE2019. We…
This morning many households in North Shropshire received their first leaflet, see above, of the by-election from the LDs which is pretty fast work given the vacancy was created only a few days ago. Although the party came third in the seat at GE2019 they were in second place at last May’s local elections and seem to be making this their priority. At this stage in the campaign, the party is seeking to establish itself as the main challenger. An…
As we saw last night the latest Opinium poll for the Observer has Johnson dropping to his worst net approval ratings ever since becoming PM. I thought it might be useful to look to see if there is a regional difference in the change in his ratings. The chart above compares last night’s poll with the approval ratings in mid-May when the PM was enjoying the full benefit of his vaccine boost As can be seen it is the Midlands…
Earlier today I did an online poll which I assume will be published in one of the Sunday papers focused on one big issue – Paterson and perceptions of corruption within the Tory party. My guess is that there could be several such surveys out as those papers that only have a chance to report things once a week, the “Sundays”, try to find a suitable exclusive angle for themselves. There’s little doubt that the events of the past few…
After the Virginia Gubernatorial election ends over a decade of straight Democrat wins in the state, one question looms large. Is this a taster of what will happen at the Midterms? Very probably it is. Democrats have a very narrow path to retain the House, and should be considered solid underdogs to hold their 50 Senate seats*. America is the posterchild for the hyperpartisan era. We focus on the swings, but the real story is the consistency. Take Presidential Election…
As can be seen from the chart of Betfair’s Boris exit date market there has been a little bit of movement in the past 24 hours with 2022 moving from an 18% chance yesterday to a 24% chance now. Over the same period, 2024 or later edged down from a 58% chance to a 54% one. The thing that is always said about how long he’ll be in Number 10 is that his salary as PM is nowhere what he…