The YouGov poll in today’s Times is the first test of public opinion that we have had since the Patison crisis emerged. As can be seen the Tory share is down to 36% a move that is driven by more than a fifth of GE2019 CON voters saying don’t know. The polling takes place amidst very special circumstances and the question is will it be prolonged or will those not ready to say Conservative now swingback slowly in the next…
Maybe a CON win in Old Bexley & Sidcup is not the certainty it appears? While all eyes have been on the Patison affair four weeks tonight we should be getting the result of Old Bexley and Sidcup by election which looks like a certain CON hold. I can’t see the LDs or LAB getting an upset but Reform, which used to be UKIP, are taking it very seriously indeed. Their candidate is the party’s presentable leader Richard Tice who…
Once the government executed the u turn on matters related to Owen Paterson his tenure as a member of parliament seemed doubtful. I suspect the Tories will hold the seat, I would have had my doubts if we had gone down the recall process, I don’t think a near 23,000 majority is at risk. I suspect the damage from this shabby, sleazy, and ignoble process will be long term damage to the Prime Minister and the Tory Party, coupled if…
Normally I get quite excited about Westminster by elections particularly when they are defences by the party of government. But this strong Leave seat is surely going to be held by Tories and the “real” election was last Saturday’s selection of the Conservative candidate. Clearly there will be a very low turnout which has become the characteristic of by-elections where the LDs are not competitive. In times of old Davey’s party might have been in with a shout but since…
Smarkets continue their series of local by-election bets with today’s contest in the Lancashire ward of North Meols near Southport. Last time there was an election here in 2019 the result was:49% Cons38% Lab13% UKIP This time there is not a UKIP candidate and we have a stright LAB-CON fight. On the face of it this looks like a CON hold. Punters however are seeing it differently and Labour in now the 64% favourite. I’m having a little bet on…
As we all know the Tories have, except for just two polls, been ahead in every survey since the spring when the so-called vaccination bounce was happening. Could all that come to an end following BoJo’s decision to thwart action against what seems to be a clear case of paid for lobbying? A lot depends on how this is reported by the media and no doubt there is nervousness about how the national papers will treat it. We do have…
The hugely controversial move by Johnson to overthrow an independent inquiry that found ex-cabinet minister Owen Paterson committed an “egregious” breach of lobbying rules has been passed by MPs. Paterson had faced a 30 day suspension which could have opened the door to a recall petition. This is dominating the domestic news this evening and Deputy LAB leader, Angela Raymer, earlier had what was a clear PMQs victory when standing in for Starmer. The Indy’s John Rentoul noted that this was one…
Backing Paterson doesn’t look smart Nothing illustrates the feeling of confidence amongst BoJo’s Tories than their efforts to protect Owen Paterson. That ministers should even contemplate anything other than let the agreed process go forwards opens the party up to the allegations of “sleaze” which those of us who are old enough to remember were what created the political climate that saw Blair win his landslide victory at GE1997. All the party is seeking to do is get round the…