LAB could be taking a big risk with ads like this
Earlier today I did an online poll which I assume will be published in one of the Sunday papers focused on one big issue – Paterson and perceptions of corruption within the Tory party. My guess is that there could be several such surveys out as those papers that only have a chance to report things once a week, the “Sundays”, try to find a suitable exclusive angle for themselves. There’s little doubt that the events of the past few…
Midterms 2022: The writing’s on the wall
After the Virginia Gubernatorial election ends over a decade of straight Democrat wins in the state, one question looms large. Is this a taster of what will happen at the Midterms? Very probably it is. Democrats have a very narrow path to retain the House, and should be considered solid underdogs to hold their 50 Senate seats*. America is the posterchild for the hyperpartisan era. We focus on the swings, but the real story is the consistency. Take Presidential Election…
It is still odds-on that BoJo will survive as PM till 2024 or later
As can be seen from the chart of Betfair’s Boris exit date market there has been a little bit of movement in the past 24 hours with 2022 moving from an 18% chance yesterday to a 24% chance now. Over the same period, 2024 or later edged down from a 58% chance to a 54% one. The thing that is always said about how long he’ll be in Number 10 is that his salary as PM is nowhere what he…
Tories drop to 36% with YouGov
The YouGov poll in today’s Times is the first test of public opinion that we have had since the Patison crisis emerged. As can be seen the Tory share is down to 36% a move that is driven by more than a fifth of GE2019 CON voters saying don’t know. The polling takes place amidst very special circumstances and the question is will it be prolonged or will those not ready to say Conservative now swingback slowly in the next…
Could Reform leader Tice benefit from BoJo’s travails?
Maybe a CON win in Old Bexley & Sidcup is not the certainty it appears? While all eyes have been on the Patison affair four weeks tonight we should be getting the result of Old Bexley and Sidcup by election which looks like a certain CON hold. I can’t see the LDs or LAB getting an upset but Reform, which used to be UKIP, are taking it very seriously indeed. Their candidate is the party’s presentable leader Richard Tice who…
We have a by election in North Shropshire
Once the government executed the u turn on matters related to Owen Paterson his tenure as a member of parliament seemed doubtful. I suspect the Tories will hold the seat, I would have had my doubts if we had gone down the recall process, I don’t think a near 23,000 majority is at risk. I suspect the damage from this shabby, sleazy, and ignoble process will be long term damage to the Prime Minister and the Tory Party, coupled if…
It is hard to see Old Bexley & Sidcup being other than a comfortable CON hold
Normally I get quite excited about Westminster by elections particularly when they are defences by the party of government. But this strong Leave seat is surely going to be held by Tories and the “real” election was last Saturday’s selection of the Conservative candidate. Clearly there will be a very low turnout which has become the characteristic of by-elections where the LDs are not competitive. In times of old Davey’s party might have been in with a shout but since…