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Conservative Party members are, on the whole, a forgiving lot. In 2019 they forgave Boris Johnson for his history of betrayals, gaffes and incompetence, gave him another chance, and made him leader and PM, graciously overlooking his record as an MP and Foreign Secretary, not to mention his colourful private life.  They then continued to forgive him, for not getting Brexit done when he said he would, for the avoidable deaths of thousands in the pandemic, and even for tax…

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The recent by-elections have prompted a rash of discussions about whether and how the non-Tory parties can work together. It’s something I’ve thought about a lot over the years, with experience of both seats where Labour was the leading non-Tory party (Broxtowe, Islington North) and seats where it wasn’t (Chelsea, SW Surrey). A few facts to start off with: Historical comparisons make it implausible that Labour will win an absolute majority at the next election. In our volatile climate, you…

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A December 25th lockdown or not? This is a tricky one for Johnson because as we all recall last year when a lockdown was brought in at what appeared to be the last minute. Now faced with the awful increasing COVID numbers a decision will have to be taken. This is one that cannot be ducked. For whatever happens it will impact on just about all of us and this is going to be very tricky. After seeing his personal…

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The above chart has been created to show two very big trends that we can now map from the two by-elections that we have seen this December. The first is that Tory voters are much more ready to switch to the LDs when Davey’s party is in the ascendency and the second is that both LAB and LD supporters are ready to vote tactically when the perceived situation in their seats demands it. Thus in Old Bexley the LD vote…

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“What is the point of them going to all these posh schools if they don’t think?” This was Daughter’s comment this (Saturday) morning at the latest suggestion that pubs and restaurants can operate outdoors. In January. In temperatures often at or below freezing in large parts of the country. In the rain, wind (remember Storm Arwen), snow or ice. When you can often not even see outside your own home. The photo for this header is the view from my…

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In the previous header Quincel looked at the possibility of the Domonic Raab losing his seat if the LDs do well in the seats where they are competitive. One of the things the by-elections have shown is that after nearly a decade of Tory rule many voters will be very flexible in their choice in order defeat Johnson’s party. One of the characteristics of the possible LD targets listed above is a highish proportion of graduates. Most of those in…

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By-elections tend to be grossly over interpreted. Boris Johnson is more likely than people think to shrug this off and govern until the next election, and even to turn it around and win that election (stunning mid-term defeats didn’t really do much to May, Cameron, or Blair). But it was still a big kick in the teeth for him, and one I thought was unlikely. Still, whether North Shropshire means Johnson will be gone by the summer or not it…

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