Since GE2019 CON position in relation to LAB down up to 26% At GE2019 the Tories secured their big majority by taking a GB vote share which was just under 12% above LAB. In the past 24 hours we have had one poll with Starmer’s party now 14% ahead. That is an overall change of nearly 26% which is huge. Inevitably big question marks are hanging over Johnson’s position with a possible confidence move in the offing. The question is…
In betting, both sides have intrinsic advantages. Punters get to pick and choose their bets, waiting for the bookie to make an error. The bookie gets to write the terms of the bet, from odds to wording and so on. Importantly, they can offer bets on only half of a market – letting people bet on some outcomes but not others. I wrote over Christmas how I sometimes dream of PredictIt being opened up to Brits. Another, even less likely,…
I always feel a sense of ownership over YouGov’s regular favourability ratings. During the coalition years I was asked by YouGov if I would like a special question devised by me to be asked by the firm. After some consideration, I came up with favourability ratings which then were very common in the US but rarely seen in the UK. After a few months PB’s linkage to this polling faded out and this became a YouGov regular. Inevitably Johnson’s numbers…
With the prospect of an early Conservative leadership election becoming increasingly more likely there has been a lot of activity in the betting. As can be seen Rishi Sunak has edged up even further to his highest level ever but he is still rated as only a 35% chance. Behind him is the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss who of course, has topped the last few surveys of Conservativehome when party members were asked to give their thoughts on who should…
At the start of the week I suggested that Starmer was a good bet to become the next PM. My reasoning was Johnson would last to the general election when the easier seat target that Labour will have would give the LAB leader a chance of becoming PM though probably not with a majority of MPs. The bet requires Johnson to remain to fight the next election something that at times has looked very unlikely over the past couple of…
Party-gate could move to being about the union One of the side stories of the current Tory “party-gate” drama has been the way that Jacob Rees-Mogg sought to belittle the comments of the leader of the Scottish Tories by saying he wasn’t a big figure. This could have serious electoral consequences at the next general election when the Tories will need to keep their seat losses below 47 in order to remain in power. Mogg said on Newsnight that Douglas…