Latest next Tory leader betting on the Smarkets exchange
The PB get together now planned for March 2nd This is being held at the Smarkets HQ close to the Tower of London. More details soon
CON members’ poll sends Sunak even higher in next PM betting
The big political betting news tonight is a new CON Members’ poll from Opinium for C4 which has Chancellor Sunak’s chances looking very strong indeed. As we all know Tory MPs vote in a series of ballots to decide which two go to the membership in a secret postal ballot. The polling has these splits. The biggest issue with this at the moment is that there is no vacancy and it is hard to predict if there will be a…
Starmer’s approval ratings are heavily influenced by London
Further to the previous post on the latest Opinium PM approval ratings I thought it might be useful to also look at Keir Starmer’s numbers region by region. The Opinium data is the basis for the above and as can be seen Starmer is viewed positively in London but this is not replicated elsewhere. In the North and Midlands regions of England he gets a net of zero. This is caused by the total of those approving of him being…
Johnson gets his worst English approval ratings in the Midlands
The region where CON made so many GE2019 gains The above chart is a regional breakdown of the Opinium approval ratings that came out in the poll Saturday night. This had a stark decline of 42% in the PM’s ratings with London at one end showing the best for the PM but with Scotland, the North and the Midlands showing big negatives. The latter two English regions, sometimes called the “Red Wall”, are where the Tory big majority was built…
Monday’s going to be a big day for Johnson
What have CON voters been telling their MPs? Clearly this is a period of high danger for Johnson. With CON MP’s returning to Westminster they will be able to report on the reaction in their constituencies to what came out before the weekend. My guess is that a collective view will emerge. Johnson great strength is that he is seen by many as being an election winner – but his critics might note that defeating the discredited figures of Livingstone…
Were you up for Boris Johnson?
His constituency might be why Boris Johnson resigns as PM before the next election I’ve been following UK general elections from 1992 onwards, so that’s eight general election nights (the last three of which have been when I was in the editor’s chair of PB) and in my humble opinion the most memorable and seminal moment was at the 1997 general election when Michael Portillo lost his seat of Enfield Southgate. In a moment Portillo went from likely successor to…
Will Boris Johnson announce his resignation before the end of January?
Those of us who had to go through several hoops to get paid out on the Theresa May exit date as Tory leader markets are understandably wary about exit date markets unless the terms are explicitly laid out, fortunately this market from Smarkets make the terms explicitly clear. In this market I’m backing No, I can get a 25% return in just over a fortnight, I cannot see Boris Johnson standing down voluntarily, even if much worse stories emerge about…
The top pollster from GE2019 has LAB lead in double figures
By big margin Opinium has voters wanting BoJo out In other findings 76% think Johnson broke the rules (including 72% of Tory voters) , 64% think the PM isn’t telling the truth (including 50% of Tory voters) and 67% think the police should investigate (including 52% of Tory voters) The best PM ratings The danger for Downing street is that all these latest numbers could embolden Tory MPs who have it in their power to oust Johnson. But the former…