As can be seen from the chart the BoJo exit date betting, as you might expect, has been very active today and now punters rate it as a 61% chance that he will be out this year. As I have stated before I am less convinced although it has been very tough for the PM today with so much evidence building up to suggest he hasn’t been truthful in the Commons. But either Johnson needs to go of his own…
Contain the damage with a new leader?? Undoubtedly today’s PMQs was the toughest for Johnson since he became prime minister in July 2019. His attempts on previous occasions to minimise what happened at various gatherings during the strictest lockdown 2020 might have moved the dial in his favour a touch or it might not. He is not helped by his accounts of what happened changing at each iteration and Starmer had a good PMQs. I am still far from convinced…
Watching PMQs was a must see for political anoraks because Boris Johnson’s inability to lie straight in a bed is catching up with him, to be honest, hiding in a fridge today would have caused him less difficulties, his non apology was bad but a response to a story from Sir Keir Starmer about someone whose father died during the pandemic and Boris Johnson’s reply included about the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7, an utterly tone…
The drip by drip leaks are hugely damaging The big problem for the Prime Minister in what is now known as party-gate is that he doesn’t know the extent of the leaking and it is clear that the latest revelations are not the end of the matter. Whoever is leaking this is doing it in such a way to cause maximum damage to the PM. It is striking that each new bit of the story is more incriminating to the…
What a busy month May 2020 was for the No 10 staff. Not only was the PM’s principal private Secretary, Martin Reynolds, busy inviting staff to an after work party to enjoy the lovely May weather, but the story of Dominic Cummings’ escape to his family home (when he was diagnosed with Covid) and subsequent trip to Barnard Castle broke. The newspapers were full of little else for days. MPs were busy placating angry constituents. Some Cabinet Ministers decided to…
At GE2019 only 7 seats had lower turnouts The sad and sudden death last Friday of former prominent trade unionist, Jack Dromey, means there is a by-election in the Birmingham Erdington constituency where he had been the MP since GE2010. I’ve no doubt that following their North Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham success the LDs will discreetly be testing the water in the seat where their candidate lost her deposit at GE2019. The percentage vote lead that Dromey had over…
Another day and another report of alleged lockdown violations by the Prime Minister last summer and still Johnson survives. But as can be seen from the betting chart 2022 has now moved to favourite for his exit. We all know the process. 54 or more MPs write letters to Sir Graham Brady calling for a confidence ballot. The 1922 Committee chair then arranges this to hold a secret ballot of Tory MPs probably the following day. If the no confidence…
Lots of speculation today about the future of Boris Johnson as prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party. The big question is how long is he going to remain in the job and Betfair have just put one up on whether he’ll still be in the job at this year’s Conservative conference. The latest betting has this as a 70% chance which is almost the same odds that are currently being traded on Smarkets on him NOT being the…