On the BBC this morning Kwasi Kwarteng was asked about the statement made by the PM in the Commons this week that crime had gone down by 14%. As has been quickly pointed out, this is a statistical sleight of hand – or a flat out lie, as those of us not educated at Eton, Cambridge and Harvard Universities then working as a columnist at the The Daily Telegraph and a financial analyst at an investment bank might put it….
Whilst few expected Boris Johnson to be the beau idéal of a Prime Minister it still feels like a shock having to write a piece about this betting market from Smarkets on Boris Johnson getting fined which says a lot about the state of his premiership. I was tempted to back the Yes option in this market but the terms of the bet make it unattractive, I don’t think the police process will be that quick, so it makes backing…
He’s teetotal, tidy, smart-looking. He brushes his hair and smiles engagingly. He’s articulate and coherent. With a successful highly lucrative City career behind him and a blameless private life, he has no obvious faults: no sackings or embarrassing public apologies, at least. A perfect ethnic minority blend of William Hague and David Cameron, even down to being MP for the former’s constituency, its name and location combining the best of North and South. Honestly, a novelist couldn’t better it. And…
The upcoming departure of Stephen Breyer, the oldest judge on the US Supreme Court and one of three progressive judges, has triggered a frenzy of speculation on who will get the nod to replace him. Ordinarily I avoid markets like this like the plague, since they are so dependent on the whims of a single person whose mind we cannot know. But Supreme Court watchers have become extremely good at this game, and I might make an exception here. The…
March 2nd – City of London – 6.30pm Next month this site, politicalbetting.com will be 18 years old and to celebrate there is to be a party at the headquarters of Smarkets near Tower Bridge in London. Full details of the event will be announced next week but we are very fortunate to have the backing of Smarkets in making this happen. Also Quincel is playing a big part. It would be great if as many PBers as possible could…
There is little doubt is that whether Johnson will face an early VONC is going to dominate UK politics until it actually happens if that is indeed the case. He’s hanging on by a thread at the moment and Team Sunak is reported to be all ready to fight an early leadership campaign. The big fear that those Conservative MPs opposed to Johnson have is that a vote could be called and end up like the one on Theresa May…
I was wrong about the Southend West by-election which the Tories have retained with a vote share that was just 03% higher than LAB’s at Batley and Spen in 2016. Both contests, of course, were caused by the murder of the sitting MP and in each case all the main parties stood aside. The turnout yesterday was 24% which is just short of the 25.8% in the 2016 by-election. My belief that during a very difficult period for the Tories…
As we near the end of another extraordinary political day with key resignations from Number 10 it really looks as though time is running out for Johnson. It appears a mess because clearly, it is a mess. Without some of the key advisors who have restrained him in the past the PM could be even worse. Why oh why did he launch and stick with this attack on Starmer when it was blindingly obvious to those around him that it…