Tonight’s Southend W result will be compared with 2016 Batley & Spen
Thankfully we do not have too many by-elections being held because the sitting MP has been murdered. Back in 1990 other parties did NOT stand aside after the killing by the Provisional IRA of Eastbourne MP, Ian Gow, and the LDs went on to take the seat in the October 1990 by-election. In 2016 following the murder of LAB MP Jo Cox we had the Batley & Spen by-election with CON/LD/GRN and UKIP all not putting up candidates allowing LAB…
Another day and now the betting edges back to a 2022 PM exit
The big question is how many letters have gone in Another day, another PMQs and the overwhelming topic at Westminster is whether there will be an early confidence vote on Johnson by CON MPs. We all know that such a vote will be triggered by 54 CON MPs sending letters to the 1922 committee chair, Graham Brady. When this happened during TMay’s time the vote came out in her favour and she was able to carry on. It is that…
The markets edge back to Johnson but 2022 exit still odds on
Scrutiny not slurs
On Monday in Parliament the PM made an accusation against the Opposition leader, an accusation described as a “smear” by Julian Smith, ex-Northern Ireland Secretary, the Minister with the enviable record of being sacked for being good at his job. On Tuesday on the Today programme the Deputy PM and Justice Secretary, ironically (or so I hope) described by the interviewer as a “distinguished lawyer“, said that, while he did not have the evidence “to substantiate” the claim (neatly throwing…
Labour reaches new high with Savanta Comres
Inevitably the current political situation is very beneficial for LAB and Starmer and the party has been getting a number of poll shares in the 40s. The latest from ComRes at 44% has this at a new high. The aggregate of LAB/LD/GRN is 56% which is also one of the highest. The fieldwork for this poll was before yesterday’s Commons even and we have yet to see a post Monday poll on how that is going to impact on the…
Johnson’s lockdown gift to Starmer
Take a look at the chart above and what you are seeing is something that is very unusual in British politics. For it is very rare indeed for the Opposition leader to poll significantly higher than the incumbent at Number 10 on the question of who would make the best prime minister. I think the last time that such sustained gap opened up was during the Blair period as opposition leader between 1994 and 1997 and we all know what…
Graying Out
Some thoughts. Even an update with the full facts is not going to say that there was any breach of the Regulations. Why? The Terms of Reference make it clear that Sue Gray has only been asked to look at what happened by reference to the guidelines. Not the Regulations. Also she says very clearly that she is not going to make a finding on breaches of the criminal law. Annex B – which sets out the Regulations is very…