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This lunchtime the Tory campaigning expert, Lord Hayward, held his annual local elections briefing ahead of the May 5th elections. His graphic above sets out the range of different elections that are taking place and arguably the most significant are the local council elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In both cases the outcomes could impact on their continuation as part of the United Kingdom. The expectation is that LAB will do well in the London boroughs which should help…

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One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that the firm always asks polling respondents to state what their level of educational attainment was. I regard that as being particularly important because education has provided a great political divider. The chart above is self-evident and shows how those with degrees are significantly less likely to be Tories in sharp contrast with those who are not. One of the key numbers I look for in a constituency is the proportion of…

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My expectation was that Russia’s extension of their invasion of Ukraine would lead to a bit of a polling boost for the government based on historical precedent and the fact Boris Johnson is actually doing something right and competent yet that really hasn’t materialised, so why is that? Looking at that polling from Ipsos we can see that compared to past handling of foreign affairs this government is towards the back of the field, so that explains why there hasn’t…

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Yesterday The Times reported When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year. While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods…

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Hardly apt given Ukraine wants to join the EU

From 1988 on young children treated for complex heart complaints at the Bristol Royal Infirmary had high death rates, higher than might be expected for such difficult surgery. Between 1986 – 1995 170 children who would likely have survived in other units, died; about 25 – 30 suffered permanent brain damage. An inquiry by Professor Ian Kennedy QC found a unit “simply not up to the task“, a result of poor leadership, a doctors’ “old boys‘” culture, secrecy and a…

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One of the most interesting regular bets that we now have is on whether either LAB or CON will get a poll lead during a particular month. The current bet is on the Tories and as can be seen the closest they’ve got in any poll is 2%. At one stage the Tories were odds-on favourite to do this but as each day goes by without such a lead the odds change. I would still rate their chances of doing…

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At a time like this when the narrative is so much against Putin’s Russia it takes a very brave, or foolhardy, Westminster Tory MP to question the actions of his government. One person in that category is reflected in the Tweet and video clip above – Daniel Kawczynski – MP for Shrewsbury. Last week his constituency Tory party said it wished to “dissociate” itself from comments made about Ukrainian refugees by Kawczynski on Twitter. Since then he has closed his…

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