There is a good argument for saying that the 41% on Johnson still being CON leader at the next election is a good value bet. Certainly, there has been a fair amount of turbulence on this market in recent months and now YES is on the rise. My main reason is the same as I was arguing in January when things looked a lot bleaker for the PM. For all his problems it is hard to see a majority of…
24 days to go before the first round of voting in the French election and the Macron campaign is in danger of being blown off course by rioting in Corsica and his pledge in response to look at autonomy for the island after he is reelected. This has caused his opponents to go on the offensive against him as the Times reports: Macron’s three main rightwing opponents accused him of capitulation and breaching the ancient French principle of the unitary…
Last week on one of the threads a couple of PBer got into a wager as to whether during March there would be a day when Ukraine wasn’t on three or more of the front pages. Well although we have only seen a couple of the nationals so far tonight it’s pretty certain that the release and flight to Britain by Nazanin is going to dominate just about all the papers. This will come as a huge relief for her…
When the Stalinist horrors of Putin’s attempt to wipe out Ukraine fill our TV news every night, it is … well, if not a comfort exactly ….. at least wearily familiar to see some things never changing. The Met has got into trouble again – and, yes, over women and girls. (Did you really need to ask?) First, the High Court ruled that the Met’s decisions (all 6 of them) before the Clapham Common vigil for Sarah Everard were unlawful….
We are now just over 3.5 weeks away from the first round of the French presidential election and already the pollsters are testing the water with the possible two contenders who will make it through to the final round. On April 10th a total of 12 different candidates will be on the ballot which decides which two will go forward to the second round of voting two weeks later. All the polling suggests that the incumbent French President, Macron, will…
If Johnson does not go to the country early then in two years’ time we would be just about to start the general election campaign. One thing that is hard to see happening is the Tories being as dominant in the polls next time as they were at GE2019. Then Johnson got what was a near landslide with his party securing a lead just under 12% of the GB vote. The latest polls have LAB 2%+ ahead so there has…
One of the more interesting bets that will see an outcome this month is the above from Smarkets on whether the Tories are are going to get a poll lead in March. I know a couple of PB Punters who have bet on the Tores doing and it has been fun to watch them as they see the possibility of another poll coming out and they can speculate whether this one will be the one. At the weekend their hopes…
This should be worrying for LAB At the weekend Opinium became the second pollster to report that Johnson had retaken the lead over Starmer on the best PM question. This was the first time this had happened since last November. What I would find troubling if I was a Labour strategist is in the chart above showing the regional splits. In Scotland and Wales Starmer just about always has the edge but it is what is happening in England where…