Johnson being CON leader at next election – a good bet?
There is a good argument for saying that the 41% on Johnson still being CON leader at the next election is a good value bet. Certainly, there has been a fair amount of turbulence on this market in recent months and now YES is on the rise.
My main reason is the same as I was arguing in January when things looked a lot bleaker for the PM. For all his problems it is hard to see a majority of CON MPs voting to get rid of him if ever there is a confidence vote. That situation applied two months ago and it applies even more so now.
It is interesting that one or two of the main Johnson-sceptic Tory MPs have now withdrawn their letters seeking a confidence ballot.
As we get closer to the general election then the more “the time is not right” argument will have validity.
My BIG CAVEAT here is the ongoing media focus on the Johnson – Lebedev relationship. The PM was smart enough yesterday to find a reason not to be at PMQs but that evasion cannot go on. Something could emerge that could make it very tricky. Starmer, for sure, is not going to let this one go.