The Betdata chart shows how those considered by punters as being in with a chance of becoming next PM have moved in the betting over the past three months. The big story is very clear. Chancellor Sunak who was rated by the betting markets as a 42% chance at the height of “Partygate” has now edged down to just a 21% one. He’s still favourite but nothing like as strong. Johnson has made it very clear that he won’t stand…
After the March budget a year ago Opinium found the Tory government had with a net plus six approving ministers’ economic handling. As can be seen from the chart the latest finding is for a net minus of 22%. So the total drop since last year is 28%.
I never know what to make of instant polling like the above from YouGov. Clearly it will take some time before the details of what Sunak announced this afternoon sink in and mostly what the sample responded is based on media responses. We have not got the details of the YouGov poll yet but my assumption that it is based on those on its panel who said that they had followed the statement and are thus in a position to…
Ahead of today's #SpringStatement 44% of the public tell @IpsosUK they are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Chancellor. – This compares to an average of 42% going back to 1976.– Quite something when 76% tell us they expect the economy to worsen in the coming year pic.twitter.com/jMWjFqoVaT — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 23, 2022
We all know that there has not been a CON poll lead since the start of December and one of the current active betting markets is on whether such a move will happen in March. As I write it is 36% chance on Smarkets. What generally happens at budget time is that there is a lot of publicity for the Chancellor. For the two or three days after his big speech he and the government get a reasonable amount of…
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The latest polling for the first round of the French presidential election on April 10th shows Macron edging down a touch with Le Pen moving upwards. Melencon is looking the closest to the top two and his latest 15% is his best so far. The election of course is in two stages with all the above candidates in the current Wikipedia list taking part in the first round with the top two going forward to the final two weeks later….
Creating a betting market for the local elections is very challenging because a different group of seats comes up each year for election. Smarkets have got around this by providing an exchange bet on the projected national vote share that the BBC generally issues in its local election results coverage. Currently, LAB is the 90% favourite which is by far too high for me to be tempted and I still wonder whether Johnson’s party might surprise us. Unless something quite…